Rating Quick Look | Alibaba, Tencent's target prices both raised after performance! How do analysts view it?
Goldman Sachs raised Alibaba's target price by 4% to HKD 103, believing that the company has achieved a series of solid quarterly performance; raised Tencent's target price by 14.2% to HKD 466, as the stock can sustain annual profit growth of over 20%, and pointed out that Tencent is attractive in terms of accelerated game growth, advertising market share revenue, and profit margins
Goldman Sachs: Maintains Alibaba-SW "Buy" rating, raises target price by 4% to HKD 103
The report states that the company achieved a solid quarter with better-than-expected growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and 5% growth in Customer Management Revenue (CMR). The Taobao Tmall Group has shown significant returns, achieving growth under its improved counterattack strategy, while the group's EBITA declined by 5%, slightly higher than the bank's expectations (but lower than visible Alpha consensus data).
During the earnings conference call, management reiterated the importance of Taobao Tmall GMV growth and user experience as their top priority. With healthy growth in GMV from April to May, the group will invest in its proven growth strategies to regain market share and commercialization potential.
With the gradual launch of site-wide marketing advertising products based on return on investment in the second half of the 2025 fiscal year, the group expects cloud revenue to grow at a double-digit rate again, driven mainly by public cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives in 2025, while losses in international e-commerce (AIDC) have not widened year-on-year.
Goldman Sachs: Maintains Tencent "Buy" rating, raises target price by 14.2% to HKD 466
The bank still considers Tencent as one of the most prominent and influential companies among large Chinese internet stocks, with sustainable annual profit growth of over 20%. They point out Tencent's attractive prospects in game growth acceleration, advertising market share revenue, and profitability.
The bank notes that Tencent's first-quarter revenue met expectations, with online advertising outperforming (up 26% annually) and gaming revenue helping offset the slowdown in financial technology growth. Net profit showed significant growth.
The bank also highlights the further improvement in profitability of Tencent's affiliated/investment companies, as well as healthy free cash flow (FCF) generation. They estimate that this not only supports ongoing dividends but also allows for share repurchases of HKD 100 billion annually by 2024.
Morgan Stanley: Maintains Tencent "Overweight" rating, raises target price to HKD 450
The report states that Tencent announced its first-quarter performance this year, disclosing for the first time the performance of its domestic and overseas gaming businesses, which grew by 3% and 34% year-on-year respectively, demonstrating strong growth potential. The outlook for future quarters also looks positive, with an expected 7% year-on-year growth in Tencent's gaming business revenue for the second quarter.
Advertising revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, mainly driven by the seasonal boost from the Lunar New Year. The bank believes that with further application of generative artificial intelligence, second-quarter ad click-through rates will further improve, with revenue expected to grow by 19.5% year-on-year.
Citigroup: Raises Tencent's target price to HKD 515, maintains "Buy" rating, reaffirms as top pick
The report indicates that Tencent's first-quarter revenue and profit exceeded market expectations, laying a good foundation for business development this year. The profit outlook is positive, with the gaming business regaining growth momentum driven not only by new games like "Dungeon & Fighter" but also by the recovery of existing major titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" Based on the latest performance, the bank has raised its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 by 0.2% and 4.7% respectively. Citigroup currently predicts that domestic and international game revenue in the second quarter of this year will increase by 4% and 8% respectively, with advertising revenue expected to grow by 15.6%. For the whole year, domestic and international game revenue is forecasted to increase by 4.1% and 6% respectively, with advertising revenue expected to increase by 17.6%. Adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is expected to increase by 25% annually to 196.6 billion yuan.