After the big rebound, Alibaba and Tencent financial reports are here!

Recently, the Hong Kong stock market has been rising strongly, recovering all the losses since September last year. As of the close of yesterday, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng TECH Index have respectively surpassed the key levels of 19,000 points and 4,000 points, signaling a strong significance.

During this round of "big counterattack" in the Hong Kong stock market, tech stocks have performed very well. According to data, the Hong Kong Internet ETF, which is heavily invested in leading Hong Kong Internet companies, surged by 2.5%, hitting a new high for the year. Since late April, the ETF has been rising sharply, already hitting new highs for the year 7 times.

At this moment, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks are about to enter a peak period of earnings disclosures. After the market close today, Alibaba and Tencent will announce their latest earnings, while JD.com and Baidu will follow suit tomorrow.

With a weight of over a quarter in the MSCI China Index, can the latest earnings of these four Internet giants add more fuel to the surging momentum of Hong Kong stocks?

On May 9th, Goldman Sachs released a preview report on Tencent and Alibaba's earnings, forecasting that Tencent's operating profit for Q1 of fiscal year 24 will increase by 15% year-on-year, while game revenue will decrease by 3%; Alibaba's EBITA for Q4 of fiscal year 24 is expected to decline by 8% year-on-year (Note: Alibaba's fiscal year is from April 1st to March 31st of the following year), with GMV increasing by 6% year-on-year.

Tencent: Net profit to increase by over 20% year-on-year, game revenue stabilizing

The report predicts that Tencent's Q1 game revenue will decrease by 3% year-on-year, advertising revenue will increase by 19% year-on-year, and total revenue adjusted will increase by 15% year-on-year.

The report also points out that considering the strong revenue from Tencent games in March and April, with double-digit year-on-year growth, there may be significant visibility for its game revenue.

Boosted by video ad revenue, the report believes that Tencent's financial technology sector in the first half of the year will stabilize, the cloud computing sector will continue to recover, and the profit growth rates for Q1 and Q2 will be maintained at over 20% year-on-year; the company's compound annual growth will be the main driver of the stock price in the second half of this year.

The buyback plan will be a focus of Tencent's financial report this time. The company had previously committed to repurchasing 100 billion yuan by 2024. So far, the company has completed about a quarter of the buyback plan. Media reports have indicated that any changes to its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns as the highest valued technology company in China will have a wide impact on the Chinese market.

In addition, the report also highlights key points to watch for in Tencent's latest financial report:

• Sustainability of domestic game growth. Particularly the revenue performance and guidance of "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite".
• Growth momentum of WeChat online advertising. The situation of video ad business (ad placement, pricing, e-commerce GMV), and the timeline for catching up with the revenue levels of other short video platforms
• Business Services/Cloud Growth. Focus on the outlook for cloud services revenue growth this year, with a key emphasis on public cloud and other SaaS/AI driving factors.
• Cost Control and Operational Leverage. As the inflection point in revenue becomes apparent, the company needs to further streamline costs to achieve a high-quality revenue growth model.

Tencent Holdings (ADR) stock price has risen by over 30% year-to-date, with a P/E ratio of 17 times.

Alibaba: GMV Recovery, Taotian EBITA Decline

The report predicts that Alibaba's Q4 GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) will resume positive growth, increasing by 6% year-on-year, while CMR (Customer Management Revenue, roughly equivalent to advertising fees + commissions) will increase by 2% year-on-year, and Taotian EBITA will decline by 2%.

Furthermore, the report forecasts that Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) will see its losses in Q4 expand from 400 million yuan in the same period last year to 3.5 billion yuan.

Considering the effectiveness of Alibaba's management strategy changes, the report suggests that the growth in GMV may translate into a re-acceleration of Alibaba's CMR growth in the second half of the year.

The report highlights the following points to watch for in Alibaba's latest financial report:

• The timing of Taotian GMV growth and market share stabilization. Whether the "user-first" strategy can translate into stable market share within 1-2 years, the timing of introducing "site-wide promotion" marketing tools to more merchants, and when Taotian MPV will show a turning point. The performance during the April-May and June 18 promotional activities will be key to influencing the company's Q2 performance growth.
• Taotian's EBITA guidance for FY25. Due to the potential decline in Taotian ERITA in the company's FY24 Q3/Q4, investors will focus on the reasons (such as high year-on-year base/investment strategy impact) and whether management will set stabilizing Taotian EBITA as one of the performance targets for FY25.
• International e-commerce platform operations. The impact of the expanded losses in AIDC on profitability; to reduce losses, Temu has shifted from a fully managed model to a semi-managed model in the US and other developed markets, with a focus on whether Alibaba's AliExpress will follow suit with strategic changes.
• In the second half of the year, cloud computing becomes a growth driver again. With the negative impact of large customers leaving, reduced private/hybrid cloud investments fading, cloud services are expected to resume growth.
• Shareholder returns. Focus on buyback and dividend policies, as the company has previously committed to repurchasing $12 billion by 2024. So far, the company has completed 48 billion dollars of the buyback plan.

Alibaba's (BABA) stock price has risen by over 9% year-to-date, with a P/E ratio of less than 7 times. Goldman Sachs believes that the lower valuation implies that there is still room for Alibaba's stock price to rise