Breakfast | S&P 500 breaks above the 50-day moving average, Apple develops AI chips

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Overnight Morning Market

After the non-farm payroll report reignited rate cut expectations last Friday, the US stock market continued to rise, with the S&P 500 breaking through the 50-day moving average, a key level considered by chart analysts to maintain a positive momentum. Tech stocks continued to support the market. The three major US indices collectively rose for the third consecutive day, with the Dow rising for the fourth day in a row.

Tesla rose nearly 2%, rising for the third consecutive day. Meta rose 3%, rising for the fourth day. Microsoft rose 1.7%, rising for the fourth day. Amazon rose 1.3%, rising for the fourth day. Alphabet and Netflix both rose for the fourth day. Apple fell 0.9%. NVIDIA rose by about 3.8%, rising for the third day. Micron Technology rose over 4.7%.

Several AI concept stocks surged. SoundHound rose 15.8%, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose over 6%, C3.ai (AI) rose 3%, and Palantir, which rose nearly 8.1% after-hours, reported first-quarter revenue higher than expected, but second-quarter and full-year guidance lower than expected, causing a temporary 7% drop after-hours.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell. Li Auto rose 4.3%, Nio rose nearly 2.2%, XPeng and Xiaomi fell 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. EHang Intelligent rose 7.6%, Tencent fell nearly 0.6%, Alibaba rose nearly 0.3%, Pinduoduo and NetEase fell over 1%, Bilibili fell 0.4%, JD.com fell 0.5%, and Baidu fell less than 0.1%.

GameStop (GME.N) fell 1.6% today after rising about 50% in the past two trading days.

US electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid Group fell over 10% after-hours. The company reported a loss of $0.30 per share for the first quarter, while analysts expected a loss of $0.25 per share.

Yesterday, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.55%, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of gains. The Hang Seng TECH Index rose 0.92%. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HKD 5.086 billion, maintaining a net inflow for 23 consecutive trading days, with a total accumulated purchase of HKD 100.338 billion.

Blue Chips and Hot Stocks

The FAA is investigating Boeing's inspection work on the 787 and potential record falsification. Boeing notified the FAA in April that it may not have completed necessary inspections related to the bonding and grounding electrical safety measures at certain wing-body junctures.

Boeing's "Starliner" spacecraft is scheduled to conduct its first manned test flight at 10:34 Hong Kong time on the 7th.

Media reports: Tesla initiates a new round of layoffs involving software and service team employees.

BYD America President Li Ke: The company has no plans to sell electric vehicles in the United States.

Aito responds to questions about the Shanxi M7 Plus rear-end collision: The collision occurred at a speed of 115 km/h, exceeding the range of the AEB system.

EHang Intelligent's electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft EH216-S completed its first manned flight in the UAE. In addition, EH216-F (used for high-rise firefighting) and EH216-L (used for aerial logistics) also completed their first flights in the UAE.

Nio: In April, 14 new battery swap stations were added, bringing the total to 2,411 stations; 292 new charging piles were added, bringing the total to 22,092 pilesThis year, Tmall 618 will cancel the official pre-sale section. JD.com 618 will also kick off directly with spot sales. The main reason for e-commerce platforms canceling pre-sales is that merchants' participation enthusiasm is not high, or the results are not good. Consumer participation enthusiasm is not as high as before.

Meituan's Hong Kong business KeeTa's single order market share has reached 44%, becoming the largest food delivery platform in Hong Kong.

Chips and Artificial Intelligence

According to The Wall Street Journal: Sources say that Apple is developing an artificial intelligence chip for servers, with the project codenamed ACDC. Apple's server chip will focus on running artificial intelligence models.

According to The Information: Microsoft is preparing a new artificial intelligence model to compete with Google and OpenAI. The new model, called "MAI-1," will be much larger than any smaller open-source models Microsoft has trained before, meaning it will require more computing power and training data, making it more expensive.

Media reports: Intel is forming a team in Japan to achieve automation in the chip backend manufacturing process. Collaborating companies include electronic manufacturer Omron, Yamaha Motors, material supplier Resonac, etc., with an expected investment of hundreds of billions of yen, aiming to achieve a working technology by 2028.

In addition to Intel's project, TSMC and Samsung Electronics have already established or plan to establish backend production research centers in Japan. Market research firm TechInsights predicts that the backend market will grow by 13% this year, reaching $12.5 billion.

Startups

According to the Financial Times: SoftBank leads a $1 billion investment in autonomous driving company Wayve.

Macro: Taking You to See the World

Federal Reserve official Williams: Rate cuts will eventually happen, depending on the data.

Federal Reserve official Barkin: The full impact of rate hikes has not yet fully materialized, believing that the current restrictive rate levels are sufficient to curb demand.

Citadel CEO Griffin: If the Fed does not cut rates in September, they will do so in December.

JPMorgan: Market expectations for US corporate earnings in 2024 are too high

US companies may face challenges from rising interest rates. "Consensus expectations for this year's earnings look too optimistic," analysts' forecasts imply a 17% growth in earnings from the first to the fourth quarter of the S&P 500 index, which would require high revenue growth or significant expansion. "We are skeptical of both."

Hong Kong stocks see a rare ten-day rally, with institutional investors stating that besides policy benefits and improved fundamental expectations, the favorable funding environment is also an important factor driving the rise in Hong Kong stocks. Recently, overseas funds have flowed into Hong Kong stocks, trading funds have returned, and short positions have been covered to a certain extent, with local and regional allocation funds also flowing back. It is expected that Hong Kong stocks may emerge from a three-year low period, nurturing a long-term fundamental recovery trend, making strategic allocation of Hong Kong stocks worthy of attention.

Hong Hao: As the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are improving, the current uptrend in Hong Kong stocks may not be over yet. The rebound in the Hong Kong stock market cannot simply be attributed to trading and funding factors; funds are not the root cause of the rebound in Hong Kong stocks; on the contrary, it is the marginal improvement in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks that has driven the inflow of fundsAfter the continuous rise of the Hong Kong stock market, there are concerns about the risk of a pullback. Agricultural Bank Securities pointed out that the current Hang Seng Index is equivalent to a P/E ratio of about 9.06. The average P/E ratio of the index in the past five years was 11.11. The current P/E ratio is 18% lower than the 5-year average level, indicating that the valuation of the Hang Seng Index is still within a reasonable trading range.

CITIC Securities: Strategically bullish on the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets this year. Recently, foreign short positions have been covered, reflecting a repair of overly pessimistic economic expectations towards China in the complex international situation. Short-term growth is worth paying attention to, and medium-term dividends remain the preferred bottom position.

Kanda Masato, Vice Minister of Finance of Japan: No comment on Yellen's remarks on foreign exchange. What is important is that currencies fluctuate in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals. If there is excessive volatility, the government must take appropriate measures.

Xi Jinping's speech at the closing ceremony of the 6th meeting of the China-France Entrepreneur Committee: We are planning and implementing major initiatives to further comprehensively deepen reforms; China will independently expand the opening up of telecommunications, medical services, and other service industries, further open the market; China has decided to extend the visa-free policy for citizens of 12 countries, including France, until the end of 2025.

Shenzhen relaxes housing purchase restrictions in different districts: the personal income tax and social security payment years are reduced to 1 year, and families with multiple children can purchase 3 sets. Wuhan introduces a new version of the "Ten Measures of Han", allowing provident fund loans without considering the first home purchase.

The National Development and Reform Commission of China held a special symposium to communicate with private enterprises on large-scale equipment renewal work.

The number of children under 15 in Japan has been decreasing for 43 consecutive years, reaching the lowest record since 1950 this year. Due to the serious population decline, 744 cities, towns, and villages in Japan are at risk of disappearing, accounting for over 40% of all cities, towns, and villages in Japan