Elon Musk: The riskiest thing you can do is take no action towards the future

Combining red and green.

In Elon Musk's life experience, the "first principle" can be said to be widely known today. But this is just "one of them" for him. As the "Iron Man of Silicon Valley," he is also labeled as a "workaholic," "tyrant," "tech enthusiast," and so on.

To get to where he is today, there must be some principles and methods worth learning from. The editor has compiled Elon Musk's speech materials, hoping to inspire you~~

For a better future, some things are very important. If we don't take action, there will be big trouble, so how big is the risk?

Because if we don't take these actions, we won't have a better future. I think the riskiest thing is not taking any action.

I. Accept Failure, But Not Giving Up

In one's life, if one does not experience failure a few times, they will miss the opportunity to challenge their limits.

People are too afraid of failure. People exaggerate their fear of failure. Imagine, what would happen if you fail?

You might be hungry, you might lose your home, but I think you should have the courage to try.

Sometimes, people limit their own abilities, not realizing how capable they actually are.

Throughout life, there are countless successes and failures.

Since we choose innovation, we should not fear failure, but rather chew on the essence of things from each failure. Through continuous experimentation, success can be achieved.

For me, I will never give up, I mean, Never!

Accept failure, but not giving up.

Your goals are very important: If I purely wanted to optimize my wealth, I wouldn't choose these enterprises. I would be in real estate, finance, or frankly, in the oil industry.

But what we need to consider is, what is the purpose of living? What is the meaning of life? Are the things we are doing expanding the intellectual horizon of humanity?

When I was in college, I always thought about what could most influence the future of humanity.

In fact, the only meaningful thing to do is to strive to enhance the intelligence of all humanity, to strive for a higher level of collective civilization throughout life, that is the meaning of living.

From PayPal onwards, I have always been thinking, "Well, what is the most likely factor to influence the future of humanity?" rather than considering "what is the best way to make money?"

For me, I want to do meaningful things, to do everything in my power to make this world a better place, that's what I want to do.

I want to change the world, hoping to make efforts to establish a new world, where people can enjoy life, that's what I want to do.

For this, I don't mind taking risks. I hope what I do will have a profound impact on people's lives. Either don't do it, or do something historic.

Finally, what is worrying is that today, children's motivation to learn and progress almost entirely comes from external pressure and rewards. As a result, they will neither have grand goals nor perseverance. I don't even want to imagine such a future I believe that as long as there is enough inner drive, ordinary children can also achieve extraordinary accomplishments. All my achievements today stem from a quote by the author of "2001: A Space Odyssey": "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

2. No matter how beautiful the PPT is, it is not as convincing as presenting actual products

In 1995, I came to California (to pursue a Ph.D. at Stanford University) with the intention of finding ways to improve the energy density of electric vehicles, such as whether there were better capacitors that could be used as battery substitutes.

However, at that time, the Internet was booming, and I faced two choices: continue researching the low probability of success in capacitor technology, or dive into the Internet business.

In the end, I chose to drop out of school and participate in internet entrepreneurship, one of which was PayPal.

The most important insight from founding PayPal came from its birth process.

Originally, we planned to use PayPal to provide comprehensive financial services, which was a large and complex system.

As a result, whenever we introduced this system to others, no one was interested. It wasn't until we mentioned a small feature of email payments within the system that everyone became very interested.

So, we decided to focus on email payments, and PayPal quickly became popular.

However, if we hadn't noticed others' reactions and made changes, we might not have been so successful.

Therefore, collecting feedback is important, and you should use it to correct your previous assumptions.

After the success of PayPal, I began to think about what problems in front of us are most likely to affect the future of humanity.

I believe the biggest problem facing the Earth is sustainable energy, that is, how to produce and consume energy in a sustainable way. If this problem is not solved in the 21st century, we will face disaster.

Another major issue that could affect human survival is how to migrate to other planets.

The first problem prompted me to establish Tesla and SolarCity (America's largest rooftop solar system supplier). The second problem led me to establish the space technology company SpaceX.

In 2002, to solve the problem of space transportation, I founded SpaceX. At that time, people I talked to advised me not to do it, and a friend even went out of his way to show me videos of rocket explosions.

He wasn't wrong, I had never made a physical product before, so it was really difficult at first. The rocket launch failed three times in a row, which was very agonizing.

But we learned from each failure, and finally, in the fourth launch in 2008, Falcon 1 entered Earth's orbit successfully. By then, I had used up all the funds, so it was fortunate that it succeeded.

After that, our transport rockets went from Falcon 1 to Falcon 9, and we developed the Dragon spacecraft. Recently, after the Dragon spacecraft successfully launched and docked with the International Space Station, it returned to Earth.

I was really sweating bullets, unable to believe that we had achieved it.

However, there are still many more goals to achieve in order to enable humans to migrate to other planets. So, I hope that you will also join SpaceX or other space exploration companies This is not about being pessimistic about the Earth. In fact, I am quite optimistic about the future of the Earth. I believe there is a 99% chance that humans can live here for a long time.

However, even if there is only a 1% risk to the future of the Earth, it is enough to stimulate us to prepare early and make a "planet backup."

In 2003, to prove the potential of electric vehicles, I founded Tesla. Many people used to think that electric cars were too slow, couldn't go far, and looked ugly, similar to golf carts.

To change people's impressions, we developed the Tesla Roadster, a fast, long-range, stylish electric sports car.

So, if you want to start a company, you must actually produce a product prototype. Because no matter how exciting the paper work or PowerPoint presentations are, they are not as convincing as presenting an actual product.

After the Roadster was launched, some people said, "Even if you can make expensive limited edition sports cars, do you have the ability to make real mass-produced cars?" No problem, we then introduced the four-door sedan Model S to prove it to everyone.

This is the entrepreneurial journey I have taken.

III. It's not about being slightly better than others, but much better

Later, I found that criticism from friends about anything I do is as valuable as gold.

Usually, your friends know what is wrong, but they don't want to tell you because they don't want to hurt you. This doesn't mean your friends are right, but often their criticism is the most sincere.

This is true.

When you talk about your ideas, those closest to you usually want to encourage you. The last thing they want to do is disappoint you.

But these people are also a valuable resource: they can tell you in depth where your weaknesses are and what you need to improve.

Of course, when you hear this criticism, that you or what you create is not perfect, it is painful.

However, any wise person can understand what kind of feedback this is - it is an opportunity for improvement.

You must try the methods that will fail, and then your goal is to make as few mistakes as possible.

When you start a business for the first time, everything is likely to be going well, your happiness index is high, and then you will encounter various problems, your happiness will continuously decrease, and then you will experience a world of hurt.

If you enter any existing market and face strong competitors, your product or service must be much better than theirs. It cannot just have a slight advantage, because when you stand in the position of a consumer, you will always buy from a brand you trust, unless the product has a significant differentiation.

So, it's not about being slightly better, but much better.

You must have an innovative mindset, not just creating better sameness. You don't just need to be 10% better at what you do, but create 10 times the value.

Think about how the iPod replaced the Walkman, or how the iPhone replaced the BlackBerry, or how the iPad replaced the Palm Pilot?

Four, The Scientific Method, is Really Effective for Understanding the Truth

Pose a question, collect as much evidence as possible, formulate axioms based on the evidence, and try to assign a probability value to each axiom.

Draw conclusions based on effectiveness in order to determine: whether these axioms are correct, relevant, whether they necessarily lead to this conclusion, and what is the probability?

Attempt to overturn the conclusion, seek counterarguments from others, further help break your conclusion. If no one can invalidate your conclusion, then you may be right, but you are not necessarily right.

This is the scientific method, and it is really helpful for figuring out tricky things.

However, most people do not use it, they prefer wishful thinking, they ignore counterarguments, they form conclusions based on what others are doing and not doing.

Such reasoning leads to "this is true because I say it is true," not because it is objectively true.

I am naturally good at engineering, this is a talent I inherited from my father, things that are difficult for others are easy for me. There was a time when I thought things were so simple and clear, everyone must know these things.

For example, how the electrical wiring in a house works. And how circuit breakers work, what alternating current and direct current are, what amps and volts are, how to mix fuel and oxidizer to make explosives.

I thought everyone knew this knowledge, but in reality, that's not the case.

And for those people, my advice is, if you want to understand the essence of things, you should read some books, occasionally browse Reddit, because I grew up relying on books.

Five, First Principles, Extremely Important for Understanding New Things

To understand those counterintuitive new things, I think physics provides the most ideal framework for research.

For example, quantum mechanics is counterintuitive, the real world doesn't seem to operate that way, but the fact is, it can be highly accurately verified through experiments.

The reason physics can make progress in these counterintuitive areas is because it breaks things down to the most basic essence and then builds up from there.

I think this is a very important method, in fact, it is the only effective method for understanding new things, exploring unknown areas.

In daily life, we are very good at using analogical reasoning, we do what others are doing, make minor adjustments. Analogical reasoning provides shortcuts, no need for extensive thinking, which is not a problem in daily life.

We cannot use physics first principles for everything, that would require too many calculations. But first principles are extremely important for understanding new things.

Now, the way physics is taught is wrong. We usually make students memorize various boring formulas, but we do not convey the basic meaning of the formulas.

What do these formulas represent in reality? The wonderful reality that a formula can describe is incredible. The beauty and wonder of physics are not conveyed through the classroom.

Also, I think our teaching should focus on questions, not tools.

For example, if we want to understand how an internal combustion engine works, the best way is to take it apart, study each component, and then reassemble it In this process, what tools do we need? We need screwdrivers, wrenches, and various other tools. When you disassemble and reassemble an internal combustion engine, you will understand the functions of these tools.

However, if you were asked to attend a class on screwdrivers and wrenches first, the effect would be very poor, and you would find it hard to remember.

The way our brains evolve is to remember things that are relevant to us, so it is essential to establish relevance; otherwise, the process of memory will be painful and difficult because it seems too abstract and irrelevant.

Therefore, there must be relevance and importance, understanding the reasons for things in order to naturally absorb knowledge.

I think we should explore a wide range of subjects as much as possible. Many innovative inventions are interdisciplinary achievements. With our increasing knowledge base, we must be able to integrate knowledge.

Some people excel in one field but are not familiar with other fields. If you can combine knowledge from different fields, you have the opportunity to create extraordinary results, with plenty of innovative opportunities available.

So, I encourage everyone to study a wide range of subjects as much as possible. For engineering students, I suggest learning some economics, literature, or other fields.

I suggest that, with interest as a prerequisite, everyone can learn the basics of each field, and then think about how to integrate knowledge from different fields. This can easily lead to creative ideas.

Six, 4 pieces of advice for young people

1. Work as hard as you can

First of all, you need to work as hard as you can, especially for company founders, you must work super hard.

What does working super hard mean?

When my brother and I started our first company, we were so poor that we couldn't afford to rent an apartment, so we just rented a small office. We slept on the couches, showered at the YMCA, and we were very tight on money.

We could only afford one computer, so during the day, we ran the website, and at night, I wrote code, seven days a week, non-stop.

During that period, I briefly dated a girlfriend who had to sleep in the office with me if she wanted to be with me.

I was working hard almost every waking moment, and that's the first piece of advice I give to people who want to start a company.

You can do a simple calculation: if someone works 50 hours, and you work 100 hours, your company will accomplish twice as much as other companies in a year.

2. Choose the right talents

Another point I want to make is, if you want to start a company or join a company, the most important thing is to attract outstanding people; if you are joining a team, you should choose an outstanding team that you admire; if you are creating a company, you should gather a group of outstanding people.

You must understand that a company is a group of people coming together to create products or services. Therefore, the talents of these people, the level of their hard work, and the strength of their cohesion determine the success or failure of the company.

If you want to start a company, you must do everything you can to attract outstanding talents.

3. Focus on the key points, don't be blinded by noise

Many companies fail to focus on the key points and end up spending money in areas that do not improve their products. Therefore, taking Tesla as an example, we never spend money on advertising. Instead, we allocate all funds to research and development, manufacturing, and design, striving to make our cars better.

I believe this is the way a company should operate.

Therefore, for any company, it is crucial to constantly evaluate whether the efforts being made by people are actually making the product or service better. If not, these attempts should be stopped immediately.

4. Don't Follow the Crowd

The last point is, never follow the crowd.

You may have heard me suggest using the principle of "first principles" thinking, similar to physics.

In other words, do not blindly follow the crowd. Everything should be based on the most basic truths. By reasoning in this way, you can determine whether something has a future or is just a passing trend.

This is not easy, as you cannot consider everything in this manner, and it requires a significant amount of effort.

But if you intend to innovate, this is the best way of thinking, and it is also the method physicists use to derive non-intuitive theories like quantum mechanics.

Therefore, this is indeed a very useful approach.

Conclusion

You may have heard these things before, but there really are no shortcuts.

When it comes to identifying societal needs, if you realize that this is indeed something everyone needs, you can find like-minded people to research and solve it together.

I think the best time to do these things is during college or right after graduating, because at this time, you have fewer responsibilities and do not need to support a family.

As time goes by, the burden on you becomes heavier, and you need to take on greater risks. As you get older, with more responsibilities, you tend to become more hesitant when facing the risk of failure.

So, I would encourage you, now is the best time to take risks. If you have a dream, go for it, I guarantee you won't regret it!

Aim for the moon, and if you fail, at least you'll land among the clouds.

References:

1. "Elon Musk's Keynote Speech: Aim for the Moon, If You Fail, You'll Land Among the Clouds," Zhenghe Island

2. "Elon Musk's Shocking Speech: I Want to Create a New World," Gongxin Headlines

3. "Musk: Four Pieces of Advice for Young Entrepreneurs," Heart and Leader Speeches