Tech stocks experience "Black Friday"! The S&P and Nasdaq both fell for the sixth consecutive day, with Nvidia plunging 10% and Netflix plummeting 9%. Middle East risks eased, while gold and crude oil surged before pulling back

Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, with even Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who is considered dovish, stating on Friday that progress in lowering inflation has stalled so far. Once again, technology stocks led the decline in the market, with the S&P and Nasdaq experiencing continuous declines for the first time in a year and a half. The Nasdaq fell by more than 2% in a single day for the first time since Fed Chairman Powell dealt a blow to rate cut expectations in March at the end of January, while the S&P delivered its worst weekly performance since the Silicon Valley bank collapse risk in March last year.

This week, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by less than 40 basis points this year and slightly over 60 basis points next year.

After announcing disappointing second-quarter revenue guidance and ceasing to report quarterly subscriber numbers, streaming giant Netflix plunged more than 9% intraday, marking its worst day in over two years. AI benchmark Nvidia plummeted by 10%, losing over $200 billion in market value in a single day, the second largest one-day drop in US stock market history, leading the decline among the "Seven Sisters" of tech giants. AI "concept stock" AMD, which has doubled since the beginning of the year, was heavily sold off after confirming the release of its financial report at the end of this month.

Corporate earnings have begun to take on the responsibility of supporting the market. Boosted by strong consumer spending, credit card giant American Express saw a 31% increase in first-quarter profit, surpassing expectations, while teaming up with healthcare giant UnitedHealth, which reported excellent earnings on Tuesday, to support the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a rise of over 200 points. However, the recent announcement of lower-than-expected orders for European lithography giant ASML and TSMC's downward revision of semiconductor industry growth expectations outside of memory chips have repeatedly hit chip stocks. Tesla's low-cost cars and prospects for autonomous taxis have been questioned by Wall Street. Under pressure from a group of blue-chip tech stocks, major indices narrowly avoided continuing their collective decline, with the Dow Jones narrowly reversing its weekly decline with a series of rebounds.

Middle East risks eased slightly during Friday's trading. After Israeli missiles hit Iranian targets during the Asian session, Iran stated that it exercised restraint, claiming that its nuclear facilities were not damaged, while the US Secretary of State stated that the US was not involved in the Israeli attack. Multiple reports indicate that the scope of Israel's attack was limited and caused minimal damage. Some commentators suggest that both Iran and the West are downplaying the impact of the Israeli attack, with Iran hinting to the media that it has no plans to retaliate against Israel. Other opinions believe that open conflict between Iran and Israel is likely to be avoided, but the market may still be tense, considering that Iran launched an attack on Israel last Saturday, a non-trading day, nothing can be taken for granted The risk aversion triggered by the Middle East conflict has eased, causing safe-haven assets to retreat: Gold, which surged more than 1% in the Asian session, subsequently fell multiple times and failed to approach or even surpass the intraday historical high set last Friday; The US dollar, which approached a five-month high in the Asian session, also fluctuated several times intraday, with the Japanese yen against the US dollar dropping below 154 and almost giving back all gains at one point, approaching its lowest level since 1990; The decline in US Treasury prices narrowed, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury plunging more than 10 basis points in the Asian session, breaking below 4.50% for the first time in a week, then rebounding above 4.60%, erasing most of the declines. Amid the damage to rate cut expectations this week, yields continue to climb.

Bitcoin, which plummeted after the Israeli attack, rebounded accordingly. After falling below $60,000 in the Asian session to a low not seen since the end of February, Bitcoin briefly rose above $65,000 during US trading hours, gaining nearly $6,000. Bitcoin's fourth halving in history is expected to take place this weekend, with historical data showing that prices generally rise after halving. However, Deutsche Bank believes that the recent decrease in correlation between Bitcoin prices and stock indices indicates that the market has partially priced in the event, expecting Bitcoin prices not to surge significantly but to remain at high levels in the future.

In the commodity market, Middle East risks have boosted international crude oil, which surged more than 4% in the Asian session last Friday, but later fluctuated several times, dropping 5% from the daily high when hitting a daily low, and ultimately closed with a slight increase, still down nearly 3% for the week. The US EIA's announcement of a larger-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories this week, coupled with disappointing gasoline demand, has weighed on oil prices. Some analysts suggest that the prospect of higher interest rates persisting longer due to the Federal Reserve's repeated suppression of rate cut expectations is becoming a bearish factor for oil. The threat of direct conflict between Israel and Iran will continue to prevent further declines in oil prices, with the focus for the remainder of the year being concerns about demand growth. It is also noted that the risks for major oil-producing countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not increased, with only Iran facing risks, which would only impact Iranian oil production if hostilities were to escalate.

This week, as the UK and US governments imposed sanctions on certain Russian metals, industrial metals emerged as big winners. London copper and tin hit new highs since 2022 for three consecutive days, with tin surging by nearly two digits in a week. Copper benefited from ongoing supply tightness, with investors wary of the risks of tin supply shortages due to a significant reduction in inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the emergence of long positions in the futures market. Despite several intraday declines on Friday, precious metal futures for gold and silver both closed higher, with gold hitting a new historical high for the third day this week, continuing to rise on geopolitical risks.

Nasdaq falls over 2% for four consecutive weeks, Dow rises for two consecutive weeks, Nvidia sees largest drop in four years, American Express soars after earnings, Netflix sees largest drop in two years

The three major US stock indices opened with mixed movements. The S&P 500, which opened lower, briefly turned higher in early trading, then turned lower and remained in a downtrend, falling over 1.1% at one point during midday trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened lower and continued to decline, falling over 2.4% at one point during midday trading, marking the first time it has fallen over 2% since January 31, the day after Powell hinted at no rate cuts in the short term following the Fed meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened higher, maintained its upward trend throughout the day, rising over 100 points in early trading, over 200 points in early trading, with most gains exceeding 200 points during midday trading, reaching nearly 330 points at the daily high In the end, both the S&P and the Nasdaq fell for six consecutive trading days, marking the longest losing streak since October 2022. The S&P closed down 0.88% at 4967.23 points, hitting a low not seen since February 13. The Nasdaq fell 2.05% to 15282.01 points, marking the largest closing decline since January 31 and hitting a low not seen since January 31. The Dow rose 211.02 points, or 0.56%, for the second consecutive day and the third day of gains this week, closing at 37986.40 points, further moving away from the low seen on January 18.

The small-cap Russell 2000 index, which is dominated by value stocks, rose 0.24%, rebounding from a five-day losing streak and hitting a low not seen since February 5. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.05%, extending its three-day decline to a low not seen since January 18. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, fell 3.26%, extending its three-day decline to a low not seen since February 21, with a weekly decline of about 7%.

Most major stock indices fell on Friday, with the Nasdaq leading the decline by over 2%, while the Dow was the only one to rise.

Most major U.S. stock indices have declined this week. The S&P fell 3.05%, marking the largest weekly decline since March 2023, while the Russell 2000 fell 2.77%, both posting three consecutive weeks of declines. The Nasdaq fell 5.52%, marking the largest weekly decline since November 4, 2022, with a recent four-week decline of 6.98%, the first four-week decline since December 30, 2022, and the largest four-week decline during the same period. The Nasdaq 100 also fell 5.36%, with a four-week decline. The Dow, on the other hand, saw a marginal cumulative increase of 0.01%, halting its two-week losing streak.

Among the Dow components, American Express (AXP) led the gains with a 6.2% increase on positive earnings, while Coca-Cola, JPMorgan Chase, and Johnson & Johnson all rose by over 2%. The only energy stock, Exxon Mobil, rose by over 1.5%, while UnitedHealth, the healthcare giant that had led the gains in the previous three days, rose by 1.6% this week after announcing strong earnings. Amazon and Intel, both down over 2%, led the declines.

In the S&P 500, five sectors closed lower on Friday, with the IT sector, including chip stocks like NVIDIA, down nearly 3.1%, the communication services sector, including Meta, down about 2%, the non-essential consumer goods sector, including Amazon, down 1.9%, and the industrial and materials sectors down about 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Among the six sectors that rose, utilities rose nearly 1.5%, the financial sector, where American Express is located, rose nearly 1.4%, energy rose by over 1.1%, essential consumer goods rose nearly 1%, and real estate and healthcare rose by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Only three sectors saw gains this week: utilities rose nearly 1.9%, essential consumer goods rose by over 1.4%, and financials rose by 0.8%. Healthcare remained largely flat compared to a week ago, while the IT sector fell by about 7.3% Non-essential consumer goods fell by 4.5%, communication services fell by 3.2%, and real estate fell by 3.6%.

Including Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, and Tesla, the seven tech giants all closed lower. Tesla fluctuated in early trading, falling more than 2% in the final trading session, closing down 1.9%. It has fallen for six consecutive days, hitting a new low since January 25, 2023, after rebounding last week and rising by nearly 4%, with a cumulative decline of about 14% this week.

Among the six major FAANMG tech stocks, Netflix opened down by about 7%, closing down by about 9.1%, marking the largest closing decline since January 21, 2022, falling for three consecutive days to the lowest closing level since February 13; Meta fell by 4.1%, dropping to the lowest closing level since February 21; Amazon fell by nearly 2.6%, falling for six consecutive days to the lowest closing level since March 18; Microsoft fell by nearly 1.3%, falling for three consecutive days, hitting a new low since January 31; Apple fell by 1.2%, marking a five-day decline to the lowest closing level since April 26, 2023; Alphabet, which rose for two consecutive days, fell by 1.1%, hitting a new low since April 5 set on Tuesday.

These six tech stocks all fell this week, with Netflix down by about 10.9%, Apple and Amazon both down by over 6%, Meta down by about 6%, Microsoft down by over 5%, and Alphabet down by over 2%.

NVIDIA, Tesla, and other tech giants, part of the "Seven Sisters" of tech, fell below the 50-day moving average for the first time since October last year, with a total market value shrinking by over $1 trillion from the recent high a week ago.

Chip stocks accelerated their decline at midday, underperforming the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX closed down by about 4.1% and 4% respectively, falling for three consecutive days to the lowest closing level since February 1, with cumulative declines of 9.2% and 9% this week. Among chip stocks, NVIDIA rebounded on Thursday but opened low and closed down by 10.7%, falling by 10%, marking the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020, with a market value evaporating by about $212 billion in a day, the second-largest single-day market value drop for a US-listed company, second only to Meta's $232 billion market value shrinkage on February 3, 2022, hitting a new low since February 21, with a cumulative decline of 13.6% this week; TSMC's US-listed shares, which fell nearly 4% on Thursday, initially dropped by 4.2% and closed down by 3.5%, falling by 10.4% this week after releasing its financial report; at the close, Arm fell by nearly 17%, AMD by 5.4%, Micron Technology by 4.6%, and Intel by 2.4%.

AI concept stocks continued to decline overall, also underperforming the broader market. After announcing that it will release its third-quarter financial report on April 30 without providing guidance in advance, "demon stock" Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which has risen by over 160% since the beginning of the year, fell by over 23%. Astera Labs (ALAB), known as "Little NVIDIA" and selling data center interconnect chips, also closed lower A 9% drop for SoundHound.ai (SOUN), a 7% drop for BigBear.ai (BBAI), a 5% drop for Palantir (PLTR), a 1.7% drop for Adobe (ADBE), a nearly 1% drop for Oracle (ORCL), and a 0.7% drop for C3.ai (AI) after turning higher in early trading and then falling in the afternoon.

A basket of AI concept stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs performed far worse this week compared to AI, posing the biggest gap in two months.

Overall, popular Chinese concept stocks fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC), which stopped its three-day decline on Thursday, closed down by about 1%, approaching the closing low set on February 13 since Wednesday, with a weekly decline of about 2.1% and a two-week decline. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed down by about 0.6% and 1.8% respectively. Among the new energy vehicle companies, Li Auto fell by 9.6% at the close, Nio fell by 5%, XPeng fell by nearly 3.8%, and Xiaomi fell by over 3%. Among other individual stocks, at the close, Daqo New Energy and New Oriental fell by over 2%, TAL Education fell by nearly 2%, Trip.com, Bilibili, and Gaotu Techedu fell by over 1%, Baidu fell by nearly 0.6%, Pinduoduo fell by nearly 0.2%, while NetEase rose by over 1%, JD.com rose by 0.2%, Alibaba rose by nearly 0.3%, and Tencent rose by 0.1%.

Banking stocks rose for the third consecutive day. The overall banking industry index KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed up by 1.9%, hitting a high since April 10, with a weekly increase of about 2%; the regional bank index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up by 2.9%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed up by 2.6%, hitting a high since April 9, with weekly increases of nearly 2% and over 1.7% respectively.

Major banks rose on Friday, with Bank of America up by nearly 3.4% at the close, Wells Fargo up by 2.7%, JPMorgan Chase up by 2.5%, Citigroup up by 1.4%, Morgan Stanley up by 0.4%, and Goldman Sachs up by 0.2%.

Most of the six major U.S. banks saw cumulative gains this week, with Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley leading the gains following the positive earnings report released this week, while JPMorgan Chase, which experienced a significant drop after last Friday's earnings report, had the largest decline.

In stocks with significant volatility, after media reports of discussions between Sony Pictures Entertainment and investment management company Apollo Global Management about the possibility of their acquisition, media giant Paramount Global (PARA) closed up by 13.4%; mobile technology company Ibotta (IBTA), which surged over 17% on its first day, fell by 8.6% during trading and closed down by 5.1% In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index, which rebounded slightly for two consecutive days, fell back as some company financial reports improved, curbing the decline of European stocks. The STOXX 600 index in Europe closed down by less than 0.1%, approaching the closing low since March 6th, which was refreshed on Tuesday. The performance of major European country stock indices varied. The UK and Italy stock indices rose for three consecutive days, while the German and Spanish stock indices, which rose for two consecutive days, fell back, and the French stock index, which rose for two consecutive days, closed roughly flat.

In terms of sectors, the technology sector fell by about 1.8%. Among the constituents, ASML, the technology stock with the highest market value listed in the Netherlands, fell by 2.3%; the automotive sector fell by nearly 0.8%, with Volvo, partially sold by the second largest shareholder Geely, falling by 4.1%; while the telecommunications sector rose by 1.1%. Among the constituents, Finnish company Elisa, which saw nearly a 4% increase in EBITDA profit in the first quarter, rose by 4.4%, leading the sector. The personal and household goods sector, where the luxury goods giant is located, rose by 0.6%, benefiting from stronger-than-expected sales in the first quarter, with sales growth of over 12% in North America and Europe. The French-listed beauty giant L'Oreal closed up by about 5%.

This week, the STOXX 600 index fell by 1.18%, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline, with a decline of over 1% for the second week in a row, very close to the largest weekly decline since January 19th, created after the decline two weeks ago. Stock indices in various countries rose and fell differently, with the Dutch stock index where ASML is located leading the decline by over 2%, while the German and UK stock indices fell by over 1%, marking three consecutive weeks of decline. The French, Italian, and Spanish stock indices, which fell for two consecutive weeks, saw a small cumulative increase.

In terms of sectors, the technology sector led the decline with a cumulative decline of 5.8%. ASML fell by over 9.5% this week after announcing first-quarter orders far below expectations. The commodity-related sectors, which performed well last week with a nearly 4% increase, all fell this week. The oil and gas sector, which rose by over 4% last week, fell by over 3%, while the basic resources sector, which rose by over 4% last week, fell by over 1.5%. The personal and household goods sector rose by over 1.8%, while the telecommunications sector turned higher this week, with a cumulative increase of 0.7%, benefiting from Friday's rise.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note plunged by over 10 basis points in Asian trading, erasing most of the declines later.

The US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell below 4.50% in early Asian trading, breaking below 4.50% for the first time since last Friday, April 12th, dropping by about 14 basis points intraday. It later rebounded, rising above 4.60% in European trading. In early US trading, it nearly erased all declines, still some distance away from the high of November 13, 2023, which was refreshed for two consecutive days on Tuesday at 4.70%. By the end of the bond market session, it was around 4.62%, down about 1 basis point intraday. The yield fell back after rebounding on Thursday, with a cumulative increase of about 10 basis points this week, marking three consecutive weeks of increase.

Various maturity US Treasury yields rebounded after plunging in early Asian trading on Friday, with a cumulative increase for the week The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell below 4.88 in the early Asian session, hitting a one-week low. It dropped by about 11 basis points intraday. US stocks briefly turned higher in the morning session, testing 4.99%, approaching the high set on November 14, 2023, when it broke above 5.0%. In the past four days, it has tested or broken above 5.0%, reaching around 4.99% by the end of the bond market session, roughly in line with Thursday's levels during the same period. It has risen by about 9 basis points this week, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase.

5.0% remains a key level for the 2-year US Treasury yield.

The US Dollar Index fluctuated several times during the day, the Japanese Yen gave back its intraday gains, and Bitcoin fell below $60,000 but then rebounded by nearly $6,000.

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, rose above 106.30 in the early Asian session, approaching the high set on November 1, 2023, that was broken for two consecutive days. It rose by nearly 0.2% intraday. European stocks briefly turned higher in pre-market trading, while US stocks hit a daily low below 105.90 in the morning session, dropping by nearly 0.3% intraday. It erased most of the losses by midday and turned higher several times.

By the end of Friday's US stock market close, the US Dollar Index was above 106.10, roughly unchanged after rebounding on Thursday, with a weekly gain of 0.1%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other major currencies, rose by less than 0.1%, ending a two-day increase after a five-day rally. It continued to approach the high set during the same period since November 2023, with a weekly gain of 0.4%. Both the US Dollar Index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index have risen for two consecutive weeks, but the increase is far less than the over 1% gain from the previous week.

Among non-US currencies, the Japanese Yen rose and then fell on Friday. The USD/JPY pair approached 154.70 to 154.67 in the early Asian session, near the high set on Tuesday at 154.80, the highest level since 1990 for the fourth consecutive day. After a dive following news of an attack on Iran in the early Asian session, it dropped below 153.60, erasing the gains for the week, falling by nearly 0.7% intraday. It then rebounded and closed flat by the end of the US stock market session. The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0610 in the early Asian session, close to the low set after Powell's speech on Tuesday at 1.0600, the lowest level since late October 2023. It fell by 0.3% intraday but turned higher before the European stock market opened. The GBP/USD pair widened its losses after the US stock market opened, dropping below 1.2370 at midday, hitting the lowest level since November 2023. It fell by over 0.5% intraday.

In the early Asian session, the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) against the US dollar plummeted, hitting a daily low of 7.2629, but quickly rebounded. It reached a daily high of 7.2457 in the early Asian session, rising by 172 points from the daily low, approaching the high set on April 10 since last Wednesday, but then turned lower multiple times At 4:59 on April 20th Beijing time, the offshore RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.2512 yuan, down 16 points from the New York closing on Thursday, falling for two consecutive days. It has accumulated an increase of 161 points this week, rebounding after falling last week, marking the third consecutive weekly increase in the past four weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $59,700 in early Asian trading, hitting a low not seen since the end of February. It quickly rose back above $60,000 and continued to rebound. In European trading, it rose above $65,400, rebounding by over $5,800 from the intraday low, an increase of nearly 10%. In early US trading, it fell to $65,000, hovering above $64,200 at the close, with a 1% increase in the past 24 hours but a decrease of over 4% in the past seven days.

Crude oil rose by over 4% during the trading session before briefly turning down by over 1%. Despite a slight increase at the close, it still fell by nearly 3% for the entire week.

International crude oil futures surged in early Asian trading, with US WTI crude oil approaching $86.30, up about 4.3% intraday, while Brent crude oil rose above $90.70, up nearly 4.2% intraday. However, prices later fell back, with European stocks turning downward. In early European trading, US oil fell below $81.80 and Brent oil dropped below $86.20, both down about 1.1% intraday, representing a 5.2% and 5% decline from their respective highs. In early US trading, prices briefly turned down after a short-term rise.

Ultimately, crude oil collectively closed higher for the first time in the past five trading days. WTI May crude oil futures closed up by about 0.5% at $83.14 per barrel, pulling away from the closing low since March 27 set on Thursday after a slight increase. Brent June crude oil futures, which fell for four consecutive days, closed up by 0.20% at $87.29 per barrel, temporarily departing from the closing lows set on Thursday for the past two days since March 27.

US oil fell by over 2.9% this week, while Brent oil fell by about 3.5%, mainly due to a more than 3% drop in US EIA crude oil inventories reported on Wednesday. Crude oil has fallen for two consecutive weeks, marking the eighth week of decline in the past 14 weeks and the 16th week of decline in the past 28 weeks since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict. After a significant increase of over 10% in the first quarter, crude oil has fallen for two out of the three weeks in the second quarter so far.

London tin rose by nearly 5%, with a nearly 10% increase for the week. London copper hit a two-year high, while gold rose by over 1% intraday before turning down multiple times, still hitting a historical high at the close London lead hit a new high since November last year after Monday. London aluminum rose by over 2%, rising for six consecutive days, hitting a new high since June 2022. London zinc erased the decline on Thursday, refreshing the high since April last year set on Wednesday.

These metals have all risen this week, with London tin up nearly 10%, London copper up over 4%, London zinc up nearly 0.9%, all rising for three consecutive weeks. London aluminum rose by about 7%, rising for six consecutive weeks, London lead rose by nearly 2%, rising for four consecutive weeks, and London nickel, which fell slightly last week, rose by over 8%.

New York gold futures hit a daily low of $2386.8 in the Asian session, down nearly 0.5%. After news of an Israeli attack came out, it jumped to above $2430, hitting a daily high of $2433.3, approaching the intraday historical high set last Friday, rising nearly 1% during the day. Subsequently, the Asian and European stock markets, as well as the early trading of US stocks, all turned lower, with US stocks turning higher again in early trading, reclaiming $2410 at noon.

In the end, COMEX June gold futures closed up by 0.66% at $2413.8 per ounce, rising for two consecutive days, refreshing the closing high record set on Tuesday, marking a historical high for the third day this week. It rose by 1.67% for the whole week, rising for four consecutive weeks. In the 20 weeks since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the increase is far less than the week ending April 5, with a cumulative increase of 4.78%.

Spot gold rose in the Asian session, approaching $2418, refreshing the intraday high since last Friday, getting close to the intraday historical high above $2430 set last Friday, rising by 1.6% during the day. It then continued to fall back, with European stocks turning lower several times, hitting below $2373 when hitting the daily low, down nearly 0.3% during the day, falling by nearly 1.9% from the high, with US stocks expanding their gains in early trading, rising above $2390. At the close, spot gold was slightly below $2390, up by about 0.4% during the day, still setting a record high since Tuesday.

Spot gold rose by over 1% in the Asian session after the Israeli attack, but turned lower multiple times later Spot gold still closed at a record high