Evercore: US stock market crash has just begun, bear market will continue until 2024

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity and Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI, stated that after falling from last month's historical high, the stock market is witnessing the beginning of a decline that will continue until the remaining time of 2024.

Emanuel reiterated his target for the S&P 500 index to fall to 4750 points by the end of the year, which means the S&P 500 index will drop another 6% from Wednesday's closing price of 5022 points. In his view, the stagnation of inflation progress, uncertainty about when the Fed will cut interest rates, and the volatility of this year's elections will all put pressure on the stock market.

In an interview, Emanuel said, "As a strategist, setting targets below the market is unsettling, but our work will continue to lead us in the same direction." "Valuations are very, very high, and the future returns of these valuations are often below average."

He added that in non-recession years, the average pullback is 13%. He pointed out that the more challenging cost pressures and whether monetary policy will drive further declines are "more of a question mark." He also predicted that a "highly controversial political election" will shift consumers' focus from spending to deciding who to vote for.

On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, a streak not seen since early January.

The S&P 500 index rebounded 22% from its low point in late October last year, but market sentiment has weakened, with investors seeing no further room for growth. A series of lackluster earnings reports and hawkish signals from the Fed have exacerbated this sentiment. Although the index hit a historic high on March 28, it has actually fallen by 1.5% since the end of February.

However, despite Emanuel's bias towards the downside, especially with the upcoming elections in the second half of the year, he still plans to buy near his target level when the S&P 500 index tests it.

Emanuel said, "We, especially momentum stocks, have been overly extended like in March, partly because the public's enthusiasm for the stock market is incredible, they see record fund flows." "We now believe that in this environment, people will temper their optimism and make some adjustments."

"In the end, you will see something that has driven all bull markets in the past 35 years," he added. "This is a good buying opportunity on dips."