How strong is the demand for HBM? Bank of America: Seizing production capacity may lead to a shortage of DRAM supply

Author: Li Xiaoyin

Source: Hard AI

Driven by the AI ​​wave, the market demand for HBM continues to rise. How long will the situation of "supply shortage" last?

On April 14th, Bank of America released a global memory technology thematic research report, interpreting the latest developments and trends in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) technologies.

The report indicates that due to low yield rates, long manufacturing cycles, and strong ongoing orders, it is expected that the DRAM wafer capacity required for HBM may be 10%-20% higher than current forecasts. Previously, Bank of America expected global DRAM wafer capacity in 2024 and 2025 to be 182,000 wafers per month and 257,000 wafers per month.

Higher HBM Demand, Greater DRAM Consumption

HBM technology can be said to be the main representative product of DRAM's transition from traditional 2D to 3D stacking, as it is made up of stacking 8-12 DRAM chips, requiring more DRAM wafer capacity.

Specifically, the report states:

Currently, the average yield rate of HBM may only be above 70%, making it difficult to reach over 90%;

Completing the front-end and back-end processes of HBM typically takes more than 5 months, which is more reasonable than the originally estimated completion within 4 months. This may lead to reduced production efficiency, further increasing the demand for wafers;

Driven by demand from NVIDIA and other major manufacturers, it is expected that new orders in the second half of this year and even up to 2025 will be stronger.

This means that producing an adequate amount of high-quality HBM will require more DRAM wafer production. The report indicates that this process may require discarding over 30% of wafers, higher than the previous expectation of less than 30%.

Shortage of Non-HBM DRAM Supply

Furthermore, Bank of America also points out that this increased demand for DRAM wafer capacity may lead to a shortage of conventional DRAM for non-HBM use by 2025.

Public information shows that the DRAM devices used for HBM are completely different from commercial memory (such as DDR4, DDR5). They require a higher number of testing devices and have been redesigned in terms of storage and data architecture.

DRAM devices used for HBM must have a wide interface, making them physically larger and more expensive than conventional DRAM ICs. According to media reports, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra once stated:

"The size of the HBM3E chip is approximately twice that of an equivalent capacity DDR5. HBM products include logic interface chips and have a more complex packaging stack, which will affect the yield rate "Therefore, HBM3 and 3E demand will absorb a large part of the industry's wafer supply."

"The increase in HBM3 and 3E production will reduce the overall growth of DRAM bit supply in the industry, especially impacting the supply of non-HBM products, as more capacity will be shifted to address HBM opportunities."

As the "new favorite" in the AI era, the demand for HBM is expected to continue to outstrip supply. Goldman Sachs also earlier released a research report, forecasting that the market size will grow tenfold from 2022 to 2026 (with a 77% compound annual growth rate over 4 years), increasing from $2.3 billion in 2022 to $23 billion in 2026