Musk: As long as the power and hardware keep up, AI will surpass humans next year

Elon Musk predicts that as long as the power and hardware supply can keep up with the pace of technological development, the intelligence of the new generation of AI models will surpass that of an individual human by the end of next year.

On Monday local time, Musk made this prediction during an interview on the X platform with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of the Norwegian National Investment Fund, and further foresaw that within the next five years, AI intelligence will surpass that of the entire human race.

Musk has long been optimistic about so-called Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), but this time he is more radical than ever before.

Last year, Musk predicted that full AGI would be achieved by 2029. Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google DeepMind, also predicted earlier this year that AGI could be achieved by 2030.

However, in the past 18 months, several major breakthroughs in the field of AI—such as video generation tools and more powerful chatbots—have pushed AI technology to unexpectedly high levels, giving Musk hope for an earlier realization of AGI.

Musk believes that while the chip supply shortage that the AI industry has faced in the past is easing, new challenges have emerged. The demand of AI models for other equipment in data centers and the power grid is still increasing.

Last year, the main challenge in the AI industry was the shortage of chips, making it difficult for people to obtain enough NVIDIA chips; this year, the focus is gradually shifting to transformer supply. It is expected that within one to two years, the main bottleneck in the development of the AI industry will be power supply.

Musk also mentioned that his AI startup company xAI is training the second-generation Grok model, "We believe it may be superior to GPT-4," with plans to complete this phase of work in May and subsequently launch a new model that is more powerful in multiple dimensions