Elon Musk urgently announces that Robotaxi is to save the stock price? Analysis: consistent style, investors need to be cautious

Tesla CEO Musk announced last weekend that the company will launch a self-driving rental car Robotaxi in August this year, which boosted Tesla's stock price by 5% during Monday's trading session. Analysts believe that Musk's move is actually aimed at creating buzz to lift Tesla's stock price, which has been struggling recently.

Tesla's stock had already started to decline before the company announced disappointing first-quarter sales. Subsequently, there were reports that Tesla had shelved plans to produce a budget version of an electric car, leading to further decline in the stock price. At that time, Musk vaguely denied stopping Tesla's decline. As of last week, Tesla was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 index this year.

Therefore, Musk has resorted to his usual strategy: changing the market narrative by showcasing new products. After the announcement of Robotaxi, investors still seemed willing to buy into Musk's vision, with Tesla's stock rising in after-hours trading on Friday and surging by over 5% on Monday.

Analysts believe that creating a sensation has always been Tesla's strategy to generate hype, and the company almost never spends money on traditional advertising. Musk has mastered the technique of getting investors to focus on the future rather than current pain points, even though it usually takes Tesla several years to bring the products he showcases into production.

Habitual Delays

In fact, Musk has been making predictions about self-driving rental cars for over a decade, but has never realized them.

Analysts suggest that investors should temper their enthusiasm for Tesla and its various product releases, as there often exists a significant gap between promotion/speculation and reality. "It seems like Tesla is trying to shift people's attention away from the current dismal conditions in the electric car market."

When Tesla started developing the Autopilot system in 2013, Musk estimated at the time that self-driving capabilities would reach 90% of customer driving miles within a few years. In 2016, Musk hinted at self-driving in the overall plan for his company's second phase and began selling the Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature. However, eight years later, FSD still has not achieved the functionality implied by its name.

In 2019, Musk announced that there would soon be 1 million Teslas on the road that could fully drive themselves. Three years later, he hinted at the Robotaxi product for the first time.

Similar patterns have emerged with other Tesla products. Take the electric semi-truck Semi, for example. Tesla showcased this truck in 2017. However, several years later, the Semi is still only in the trial production stage.

The Cybertruck is no different. In 2019, Tesla's chief designer Franz von Holzhausen smashed the glass windows of a stainless steel prototype. Years later, the Cybertruck can only be occasionally seen in some cities, with sales so low that Tesla has not yet separately listed sales figures in its quarterly reports

Analyst: Software is more important than hardware

Tesla has stated that its next generation of vehicles will include a cheaper electric car and a Robotaxi, which are expected to be similar, with one having a steering wheel and the other without.

At the same time, Tesla has been rolling out the latest version of FSD to more and more consumers in recent weeks, some of whom are offered free trials. Last Friday, the company announced that customers have driven over 1 billion miles using FSD.

The promise of fully autonomous driving has long been a strategy that sets Tesla apart from its competitors. The company charges $12,000 for FSD in the US, which is a substantial amount. While it can offset some recent price cuts, Tesla needs to convince more customers that this feature is worth it.

Analysts believe that in order to maintain its market leadership, Tesla needs cheaper vehicles and full self-driving capabilities, but FSD is more important. "Software and services are a better business model than manufacturing."

This is also what Musk believes. He stated in June 2022 that autonomous driving is essential, "This is actually the difference between a very valuable Tesla and a product that is almost worthless."

Whether investors are willing to believe in Musk's latest bold plans will be revealed in a few weeks, as Tesla plans to announce its first-quarter earnings on April 23.

Analysts advise Tesla investors to remain cautious about the hype surrounding autonomous driving taxis. "On the one hand, this implies the existence of a fully autonomous driving system, which could be a very profitable new source of income. However, such a system does not exist yet."