Tesla delivery data faces a major test, Wall Street lowers expectations, pessimists: may see the first decline since the beginning of the epidemic

Tesla is facing a double blow of reduced demand for electric vehicles and high interest rates. At the end of the first quarter, analysts have lowered their expectations for Tesla's deliveries, with some even pointing out that Tesla may experience its first year-on-year decline in sales since the early days of the pandemic.

According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts generally expect Tesla's deliveries to be 449,000 vehicles in Q1, a decrease of over 7% from Q4 2023, failing to reach the peak performance of the usual sales peak in the fourth quarter.

Analysts are particularly concerned about whether Tesla can deliver more than the 422,800 vehicles in Q1 2023 to avoid its first annual year-on-year decline since Q2 2020.

Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas wrote in a report on Monday, "Supply constraints may have caused Tesla to lose about 95,000 deliveries. Tesla may have produced around 430,000 vehicles in Q1, a decrease of about 13% from the previous quarter. Tesla may announce its Q1 deliveries and production on Tuesday morning."

Tesla's stock price fell 2.6% at midday on Monday, ending down 0.32%.

Tesla Promotes "Full Self-Driving" Feature, Musk's New Directive May Affect Sales Speed

In January this year, Musk warned investors that the company is between two major growth waves. The first wave of growth benefited from the launch of the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, while the next wave of growth is expected to come from the upcoming Model 2 priced at around $25,000, which is planned to start production by the end of next year.

Although the next generation of models is key to growth, production of this model is not expected to start until later next year, which means that the company may face the risk of slowing growth before that. After the company's stock price experienced a sharp drop of up to $350 billion, investor confidence was shaken. Therefore, Tesla is stimulating sales through other means (such as price adjustments, promotions, etc.) to avoid a year-on-year decline.

According to reports, in the last week of March, Tesla CEO Musk introduced a new directive that could slow down the sales process, requiring every North American customer to experience a short test drive to test the company's heavily promoted but potentially misleading "Full Self-Driving" assisted driving feature.

Tesla's strategies in promoting its "Full Self-Driving" feature, including free trials, price discounts, and increased advertising, aim to deepen the market's understanding of its autonomous driving technology.

Specifically, to attract consumers, Tesla has started offering a one-month free trial service, with a regular subscription fee of $199 per month or a one-time purchase fee of $1.2This is just one of the benefits Tesla uses to entice consumers, others include a temporary $1000 discount and free Supercharger service. In addition, Tesla has increased its advertising efforts on Google and X (a social media service owned by Musk)