HBM production increase! Samsung expects this year's production capacity to be 2.9 times that of last year

Continuing to strengthen HBM, Samsung is striving to catch up with Micron.

According to media reports, on Tuesday local time, Samsung announced at the global chip manufacturer gathering Memcon 2024 that it is expected that HBM production capacity will increase to 2.9 times that of last year by 2024. Hwang Sang-joong, Executive Vice President and DRAM Product and Technology Director of Samsung, also stated:

"Following the mass production of the third-generation HBM2E and fourth-generation HBM3, we plan to mass produce the 12-layer fifth-generation HBM3e and 128 GB DDR5 (DRAM solution) based on 32 gigabits in the first half of this year ."

"With these products, we are expected to enhance our influence in the high-performance, large-capacity memory field in the era of artificial intelligence."

Earlier this year, Samsung had stated at CES 2024 that the HBM production capacity for 2024 is expected to be 2.5 times the original.

Furthermore, Samsung also unveiled the HBM roadmap at this conference, projecting that the shipment volume of HBM in 2026 will be 13.8 times that of 2023; by 2028, the annual production of HBM will further increase to 23.1 times that of 2023.

Will this production increase help Samsung strive for the lead in the increasingly fierce HBM competition? Currently, Samsung's situation seems less optimistic.

Currently, the HBM market presents a "tri-polar" pattern: SK Micron, Samsung, and Micron are the only three HBM suppliers in the world. Industry data shows that in the 2022 HBM market, SK Micron holds a 50% market share, Samsung holds 40%, and Micron holds 10%.

According to media reports, foreign investors are buying SK Micron stocks while heavily selling Samsung Electronics stocks, making Samsung one of the most sold-off stocks by foreign investors this month. In addition, there have been reports that SK Micron plans to establish an AI chip alliance with TSMC, indicating a trend in the HBM market from "tri-polar" to "dominance by one".

As the "new favorite" of the AI era, the demand for HBM is expected to continue to outstrip supply. Goldman Sachs recently released a research report, forecasting that the market size will grow tenfold from 2022 to 2026 (a compound annual growth rate of 77% over 4 years), increasing from $2.3 billion in 2022 to $23 billion in 2026