Nio still needs to break through

After Li Auto, another new force announced a downward adjustment in first-quarter sales expectations.

On the evening of March 27th, Nio announced that it would lower its first-quarter delivery guidance from the previous 31,000-33,000 units to 30,000 units, a decrease of 3%-9%.

As a result, after the opening of the U.S. stock market that evening, Nio's stock price fell more than 5.5% at one point.

The last time Nio proactively lowered its forward expectations was back in December 2022, due to a capacity crisis at that time. This time, Nio did not disclose the specific reasons for the adjustment. However, in the industry's view, price wars and unstable demand for electric vehicles have had a significant impact.

In the first two months of this year, due to factors such as oversupply of demand from car companies at the end of last year and delayed Chinese New Year holidays, most companies in the industry, except for Aito and others, experienced a year-on-year double decline that had not been seen in several years.

Amidst this trend, Nio, which has been conservative in price reductions, is inevitably under pressure.

In fact, Nio's internal expectations for the whole year are not low, aiming to achieve a year-on-year doubling of deliveries to 230,000 units. To stimulate sales, Nio adjusted the price of its BaaS service in mid-March, further lowering the threshold for car ownership.

However, from the perspective of this adjustment in expectations, Nio's ace has not immediately taken effect and reversed the overall downturn in the first quarter. Based on its new target of 30,000 vehicles, Nio's year-on-year growth in March is only 14%.

Therefore, the market is concerned whether this temporary setback will affect the achievement of its annual target. Nio has not commented on this issue for now.

According to Chairman William Li's plan, Nio's "big moves" are mostly concentrated in the second half of the year.

The most anticipated is the sub-brand "LeDao", which will play a key role in driving Nio's overall sales.

According to William Li, "LeDao" targets the young family market, and its first SUV will directly compete with the current best-selling Model Y in the pure electric field.

William Li is ambitious, believing that the brand has a latecomer advantage, deeper research on user needs, and relying on the platform foundation of the Nio main brand, it is competitive in terms of cost and performance, "will be 10% cheaper than Tesla"; and "LeDao" will prioritize sales upon entry, not focusing on gross profit in the early stages," Li emphasized.

According to the plan, "LeDao" will launch its brand in the second quarter, and introduce its first model in the third and fourth quarters, starting mass deliveries. The second model targeting large families has entered the mold development stage, and the third model is also in development.

As for the Nio main brand, William Li previously stated that there will be no new models launched this year, focusing more on channel sinking, expanding battery swap stations, releasing autonomous driving functions to strengthen control over the demand side, while adjusting the price of BaaS services to further stimulate the market.

This means that starting from the second half of the year, Nio will be able to launch a dual-brand strategy. At the performance meeting in early March, William Li also expressed confidence that as the market warms up after March, Nio will return to a monthly sales level of 20,000 unitsHowever, the first quarter's pullback sounded the alarm for Nio. As the knockout stage enters a critical phase, industry reshuffling becomes more frequent, with even the top players unable to escape. Therefore, each company has resorted to tactics such as pricing, technology, and overseas expansion to respond quickly.

During the window period before the full release of the sub-brand "Yuanjun" and infrastructure efficiency, Li Bin and his Nio still need to navigate cautiously, adjusting their stance in a timely manner in the face of changing market and consumer demands, in order to hold on until the end of the year and usher in a flourishing scene