Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | "Weight-loss Miracle Drug" to be Listed Soon! The domestic GLP-1 industry is about to enter a harvest period (with concept stocks attached).

Zhitong App learned that on March 7th local time, Novo Nordisk AS revealed an important message at the Capital Market Day (CMD): their self-developed weight-loss drug Wegovy is expected to obtain market approval in China this year. Initially, this product will mainly target self-paying patients, and the supply quantity will be limited. In response to this news, Novo Nordisk AS's stock price rose by 8.95% on Friday, closing at $135.92 per share in the U.S. stock market, with a market value surpassing $606.6 billion, exceeding Tesla. Since the beginning of 2024, the company's stock price has risen by over 30%.

It is understood that Wegovy is a semaglutide weight-loss drug developed by Novo Nordisk AS, which was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2021 for marketing as a weight-loss drug, attracting widespread attention globally. It is worth mentioning that the other two semaglutide products - the injectable Ozempic for type 2 diabetes treatment and the tablet Rybelsus, have already been approved for marketing in China in April 2021 and January this year, respectively.

Furthermore, at the Capital Market Day event, Novo Nordisk AS also announced the preliminary clinical trial results of their experimental weight-loss drug amycretin. Compared to Wegovy, amycretin demonstrated a more significant weight loss effect in a 12-week trial, with an average weight loss of 13.1%, while Wegovy achieved a weight loss effect of about 6% during the same period. At the same time, Novo Nordisk AS is actively developing GLP-1R/GIPR/insulin receptor triple-target agonists and is expected to enter the clinical stage within the next year.

Meanwhile, on March 8th local time, Novo Nordisk AS announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved their weight-loss drug Wegovy (semaglutide) injection for reducing major adverse cardiovascular events in overweight and diagnosed cardiovascular disease patients. Based on the SELECT cardiovascular clinical trial results, Wegovy showed significant statistical significance, reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events by 20% compared to the placebo group. Semaglutide is the first weight-loss drug approved to assist adults with cardiovascular disease and obesity or overweight in preventing major cardiovascular events. Novo Nordisk AS has also applied to expand the indications in the European Union, with a decision expected in 2024.

On January 31st, Novo Nordisk AS released its 2023 performance, with a 31% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 37% year-on-year increase in operating profit. Among them, the star product semaglutide achieved sales of approximately $21.201 billion, an 88.78% year-on-year increase, accounting for 62.78% of total revenue. Specifically, the weight-loss drug Wegovy generated revenue of approximately $4.557 billion, a 407% year-on-year increase. However, due to production capacity constraints, the company has had to limit supply in multiple regions. Industry insiders believe that the market potential of semaglutide has not been fully realized yet. In order to expand production capacity to meet market demand, Novo Nordisk AS has been expanding globally. In February of this year, the company invested billions of dollars to acquire the leading enterprise in the CDMO industry, Catalent, aiming to enhance the production capacity of diabetes and weight loss drugs.

It is worth noting that the patent for semaglutide in China held by Novo Nordisk AS will expire in 2026. This means that the company's exclusive position in the Chinese market can only be maintained for a little over two years. Currently, several domestic pharmaceutical companies such as Shinda Biotech, Hanyu Pharmaceuticals, Lijun Group, and Huadong Medicine have been laying out their strategies in the generic drug market for semaglutide.

Currently, there are 9 GLP-1 drugs approved for marketing in China, including 8 GLP-1R agonists and 1 biosimilar. These drugs are approved for the treatment of diabetes domestically. Among the approved GLP-1 products in China, Renhui Biotech's semaglutide and Huadong Medicine's liraglutide biosimilar are not only approved for diabetes treatment but also for obesity treatment.

Recently, Shinda Biotech announced that the first new drug application (NDA) for their GLP-1R/GCGR dual agonist, Mashidupeptide, for long-term weight control in adults with obesity or overweight, has been accepted by the CDE. The acceptance of Mashidupeptide's NDA indicates that domestic companies are beginning to realize their strategies in the GLP-1 weight loss market.

Debon Securities estimates that the global market size for GLP-1 in the fields of type 2 diabetes and obesity could reach $90 billion by 2030. The type 2 diabetes drug market is expected to be around $35-40 billion, while the weight loss drug market is estimated to be around $50-55 billion.

According to data calculated by Nomura Orient International Securities Research Report, the domestic GLP-1 industry is about to enter a period of harvest, with the combined market size for blood sugar reduction and weight loss expected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2030. The market space for GLP-1 targeting diabetes, overweight, and obesity is expected to reach 43 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan, and 43 billion yuan respectively, showing immense potential.

Related concept stocks:

Fosun Pharma (02196): On October 17 last year, Fosun Pharma stated on the interactive platform that their research variety, liraglutide (intended for diabetes and obesity indications), is currently in Phase III clinical trials in China.

Shinda Biotech (01801): In early February, Shinda Biotech announced that the first weight loss indication new drug application for Mashidupeptide has been formally accepted by the National Medical Products Administration for long-term weight control in adults with obesity or overweight.

Federal Pharma (03933): Zhongtai International previously pointed out that the company's management indicated that the first GLP-1 agonist, liraglutide, has been submitted for marketing approval and is expected to be approved for marketing by 2024. In addition, based on the current progress, the company expects the long-acting insulin, Degludec insulin, to be approved for marketing by 2025. The company is one of the early Hong Kong-listed enterprises to have obtained approval for clinical trials of Semaglutide. Due to the excellent effects of Semaglutide in lowering blood sugar and weight, if the future clinical data is positive, it will attract attention from investors.