Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple's only foldable product in development is expected to be mass-produced by Apple in 2027.
Guo Mingchi stated that his latest research shows that Apple's only foldable product with a clear development schedule is the one with a approximately 20.3" display, expected to be mass-produced by Apple in 2027. At the same time, Apple's shipment expectations have been lowered due to intense market competition, especially from Huawei, leading to a decline in iPhone sales. Additionally, Apple's progress in AI is slow, which may further drive down its stock price. Goldman Sachs has removed Apple from its "best buy list," with concerns about Apple's long-term sales slump being the main reason for the adjustment. In summary, Apple is facing challenges in the development of foldable products, market competition, and progress in AI.
Zhitong App learned that on March 7th, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi stated in a post that he has been asked multiple times recently whether Apple plans to mass-produce a foldable Apple or iPad in 2025 or 2026. Guo Mingchi indicated that his latest research shows that the only foldable product with a clear development schedule at Apple is one with a approximately 20.3" display, expected to be mass-produced in 2027.
It is worth noting that on March 6th, Guo Mingchi lowered Apple's shipment expectations. He mentioned that the previous market consensus for Apple's shipments in 2024 was 220-225 million units, but it has now started to be revised downwards, approaching the earlier forecast of 200 million units. If Apple fails to launch AI services that exceed market expectations this year, Nvidia's market value is likely to surpass that of Apple.
According to the latest data released by market research firm Counterpoint, in the first six weeks of 2024, Apple's smartphone sales plummeted by 24% year-on-year, dropping to fourth place in rankings. Analysts attribute the decline in Apple's sales mainly to intense market competition, especially from Huawei, whose smartphone sales surged by 64% during the same period.
Guo Tianxiang, a senior analyst at IDC China, pointed out to TMTPost App, "The main competition still comes from other high-end Android products represented by Huawei, putting significant pressure on Apple. Since the beginning of 2024, Apple's sales performance has been consistently poor, while Android products priced above 4000 yuan have been selling well."
As for advancements in AI, Apple's public moves have always been slow. An investor pointed out that AI is a potential positive factor for Apple but also an unstable one. Considering the unknown impact of AI terminals on stimulating upgrades, there is a possibility of further decline in Apple's stock price.
Recently, Goldman Sachs has removed Apple from its "Best Buy List," with concerns about Apple's long-term poor sales being the main reason for the adjustment. Over the past two trading days, due to the impact of EU fines and declining sales, Apple's market value has evaporated by over a trillion RMB.
Previously, Barclays analyst Tim Long believed that the poor sales of Apple 15 will continue; although Apple 16 has not been released yet, it is not expected to have significant upgrades to drive consumer upgrades.