Loose expectations are heating up, US bonds surged, gold hit a historic high, US, European, and Japanese stocks had a strong start in March, NVIDIA's market value exceeded 2 trillion, while NYCB bank in the crisis-stricken area experienced a sharp decline.

The economic data released on Friday strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve: The iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd's February ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, remaining in contraction for 16 consecutive months. Sub-indices such as new orders and employment both shrank, but the positive news of declining customer inventories suggests that orders may increase. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for February did not stabilize as expected but instead declined.

Following the data release, the price of iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd bonds rose, causing yields to plummet below 4.60% intraday. The market also paid attention to statements from Federal Reserve officials, with Fed Governor Wall stating that the Fed's balance sheet reduction decision does not imply a stance on interest rates. He hopes to see two key developments in the Fed's portfolio: institutions reducing their MBS holdings to zero and increasing the proportion of short-term bonds in their U.S. Treasury holdings. Analysts suggest that Wall is hinting at implementing "Quantitative Tightening (QT)," which would lower short-term yields and steepen the yield curve.

After Wall's speech, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bonds, sensitive to interest rates, further widened its decline, along with the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury yield, both falling more than 10 basis points from their daily highs to hit new lows in over two weeks. Due to the plummeting yields on Friday, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield halted its month-long upward trend, experiencing a weekly decline for the first time since the end of January.

Overall, U.S. stocks continued to rise, along with European stocks and the record-breaking performance of Japanese stocks in March. Chip stocks supported the market for consecutive days, with Nvidia and AMD both hitting new closing highs. Nvidia became the first chip stock to surpass a market capitalization of $2 trillion at closing, while Taiwan Semiconductor also reached a new closing high. Dell surged over 20% due to strong demand for AI servers and better-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter. However, after the revelation of significant internal control deficiencies, New York Community Bank (NYCB) plummeted nearly 30% on a gap down, dragging down regional bank stocks. Chinese concept stocks welcomed a strong start in March after a significant rise in February, but the performance of new energy vehicle companies varied following the announcement of February delivery volumes, with XPeng rising for consecutive days while Li Auto experienced a decline.

In the foreign exchange market, following the release of the ISM data, the U.S. dollar index, which hit a new intraday high of over a week, quickly reversed its gains, leading to a rebound in various non-U.S. currencies. After the Governor of the Bank of Japan hinted that a rate hike in March may not be on the table, the Japanese yen fell below 150, moving away from the two-week high set on Thursday. Bitcoin rebounded by over $2,000 during the trading session, although it has not yet approached the high of $64,000 set on Wednesday, the cumulative increase this week has exceeded 20%.

In the commodity market, ISM data and Powell's speech helped boost gold prices significantly. The New York gold futures rose by over 2% for the first time in two and a half months, refreshing the highest closing record set two months ago. International crude oil rebounded, with U.S. oil hitting the $80 mark for the first time in nearly four months during the trading session. Analysts suggest that the rise in U.S. oil prices coincides with a widening spot price spread, indicating a tighter supply in the physical market, partly due to hundreds of oil tankers bypassing the Red Sea due to geopolitical risks. The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Palestine also contributed to the rise in oil prices. According to CCTV, on Thursday, Palestinian civilians at a Gaza City relief supplies distribution point were attacked, resulting in 104 deaths and 760 injuries. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated on Thursday evening that the Israeli military will continue its operations in the Gaza Strip until "achieving a comprehensive victory," questioning whether a temporary ceasefire agreement is premature.

S&P 500 hits another record high at the close, while Dow continues to rebound but ends the week with an overall decline. Chip stocks outperform the market for two consecutive days.

The three iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd indices opened mixed and rose across the board during the trading session. The S&P 500 index opened slightly higher, briefly turned lower in the morning, then continued to rise, gaining over 0.8% at midday; the Nasdaq Composite Index opened high and continued to rise, up over 1% at midday; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened lower, initially fell by over 140 points, nearly 0.4%, but completely reversed the decline towards the end of the morning session, rising by over 110 points at midday, ultimately closing higher for two consecutive days.

The Nasdaq rose by 1.14%, closing at 16,274.94 points, the S&P rose by 0.8%, closing at 5,137.08 points, both hitting record highs for two consecutive days. The Dow rose by 90.99 points, a 0.23% increase, closing at 39,087.38 points, continuing to move away from the low point since February 21 set on Wednesday.

Value stocks led the small-cap Russell 2000 index to rise by 1.05%, marking a two-day consecutive high since April 2022. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose by 1.44%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index, rose by 2.05%, with a 2.5% increase for the week, both hitting record highs for two consecutive days along with the Nasdaq.

Major stock indices failed to collectively rise this week, with the S&P up by 0.95%, Nasdaq up by 1.74%, and Nasdaq 100 up by 2.04%, all rising for two consecutive weeks, the seventh week of gains in the first nine weeks of 2024, with only the first week of the new year and the week before last showing declines. The Russell 2000 rose by 2.96%, rebounding after a two-week halt following consecutive gains. However, the Dow fell by 0.11%, reversing after a five-week streak of gains last week, marking the third week of decline this year. The major U.S. stock indexes saw a cumulative decline this week, with small-cap indexes rising by nearly 3%, outperforming the broader market.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only three closed lower on Friday, with utilities falling by over 0.7%, financials by over 0.2%, and consumer staples slightly down. IT stocks, including NVIDIA and other chip stocks, rose by nearly 1.8%, energy by nearly 1.2%, interest rate-sensitive real estate by nearly 1.1%, and healthcare by nearly 1%.

Despite the gains, not all seven major tech stocks, including Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta (formerly Facebook), and Tesla, rose together. Tesla initially fell by 1.7% in early trading, then turned positive by over 1% at midday, closing up by nearly 0.4%. After a slight pullback on Thursday, it rebounded to its highest closing level since January 24, rising by nearly 5.6% for the week, erasing the losses from the previous week's three-week winning streak.

Among the FAANMG six major tech stocks, Meta opened high and closed up by nearly 2.5%, hitting new closing highs for two consecutive days. Netflix turned positive after the opening and closed up by 2.7%, also hitting new highs since December 2021 for two consecutive days. Amazon turned positive in early trading and closed up by 0.8%, hitting new highs since November 2021 for two days. Microsoft turned positive at midday and closed up by over 0.4%, rising for three consecutive days to its highest level since February 9. However, Alphabet, which rebounded on Thursday, closed down by 1.2%, approaching the low set on January 5, and Apple, affected by the price cut of over 1,000 yuan for the iPhone 15 in China, fell by nearly 1.9% intraday, closing down by 0.6% for the third consecutive day, hitting new closing lows since November 6, 2023, for two days.

Among these six tech stocks, Apple fell by nearly 1.6% and Alphabet by nearly 5% for the week, while Netflix rose by 6.1%, Meta by nearly 3.8%, Amazon by over 1.8%, and Microsoft by nearly 1.3%.

Overall, chip stocks rose for two consecutive days, outperforming the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX rose by nearly 5% at midday, setting new closing highs for two consecutive days. At the close, NVIDIA rose by 4%, up by about 4.4% for the week, although not as much as the over 8.5% increase last week when AMD surged by 9% on Thursday. AMD rose by over 5%, up by 14.8% for the week, hitting new highs for two consecutive days along with NVIDIA. Broadcom, which produces AI accelerators, rose by over 7%, TSMC's U.S. stock rose by over 4%, and Intel rose by 1.8%.

NVIDIA achieved a historic milestone by surpassing a market capitalization of $2 trillion for the first time, compared to just $280 billion in October 2020. AI concept stocks failed to collectively rise for two consecutive days. By the close, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rose by 4.5%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose by 3%, Adobe (ADBE) rose by nearly 2%, while SoundHound.ai (SOUN), which surged 17% on Thursday, fell by nearly 19%, and C3.ai (AI), which rose over 20% after the earnings report on Thursday, fell by about 3%, and Palantir (PLTR) fell by 0.6%.

Banking stocks indices all fell back, narrowing their losses at midday. The overall banking industry index, KBW Bank Index (BKX), rebounded to a high not seen since January 30th in the morning, dropping by over 1% and closing down by 0.3%, with a weekly gain of 0.5%; regional banking index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) and regional banking stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) both dropped by over 3% in the morning, closing down by nearly 1.3% and 1.1% respectively, with weekly declines of nearly 1% and over 0.5%.

Among regional banks, New York Community Bank (NYCB) suffered a tenfold increase in losses in the fourth quarter due to significant internal control deficiencies, opening down by 27.8%, maintaining a drop of over 20% at midday, and closing down by 25.6%; Western Alliance Bank (WAL) closed down by 2.3%, and Zions Bancorporation (ZION) fell by nearly 1.7%.

Overall, popular Chinese concept stocks rebounded. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose by nearly 1.9% in the morning, closing up by about 1%, rebounding after two consecutive days of decline, approaching the closing high since December 29, 2023, and accumulating a nearly 2% gain for the week, rising for three consecutive weeks since the Year of the Dragon, and continuously rising since the beginning of the year. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up by about 2.5% and 1.5% respectively. Among the three new forces in the automotive industry, XPeng rose by 5.5% at the close, surging for two consecutive days after announcing a joint development agreement with Volkswagen, Nio rose by 0.5%, and Li Auto fell by 5.1%. Among other individual stocks, at the close, Bilibili rose by nearly 4%, Baidu rose by over 2%, rising for the first time in three days since the earnings report, NetEase, which fell by nearly 4% after the earnings report on Thursday, also rose by over 2%, Pinduoduo and JD.com rose by over 1%, Tencent Music rose by 0.9%, and Alibaba rose by 0.8%.

Among the stocks that released earnings reports, Dell (DELL) rose by 31.6% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, showing strong demand for AI servers, and increasing annual dividends by 20%.

In European stocks, the pan-European stock index hit a historic high. The European Stoxx 600 index, which closed roughly flat on Thursday, surpassed the closing historical high set last Friday. Major European country indices rose on Friday, with the German stock market hitting a record high for the eighth consecutive trading day, the UK stock market rising for two consecutive days, and the French stock market rebounding after Thursday's decline, along with Spain and Italy's stock indices, which had fallen for three and two consecutive days respectively. In various sectors, interest rate-sensitive real estate led the gains with an increase of over 1.8%, the technology sector rose nearly 1.6%, benefiting from the Dutch-listed European chip stock ASML reaching a historical high with a 2.7% increase, and the rebound in oil prices drove the oil and gas sector up by over 1.3%. Among individual stocks, Daimler Trucks surged by 18.1% as it announced pre-tax profits for 2023 exceeding expectations, raised dividends, and provided a far better-than-expected profit guidance for 2024, leading the gains in the German market. On the other hand, Volkswagen fell by over 7% during the day due to the anticipated slowdown in revenue growth caused by declining demand for electric vehicles and increased competition, closing down by about 5%, dragging the automotive sector to a roughly flat close.

Thanks to the uptrend on Friday, the STOXX 600 index slightly rose for the week, marking a six-week consecutive increase. Stock indices in various countries showed mixed performances, with the German market rising by nearly 2% for the fourth consecutive week, the Italian market rising by less than 1% for the sixth consecutive week, while the French market, which had risen for three consecutive weeks, and the Spanish market, which rebounded last week, both retreated. The British market, which had a slight cumulative decline last week, fell for the second consecutive week. The technology sector managed to rise by over 1% for the entire week due to the Friday rally, while the automotive sector, which led in the first two weeks, also rose by over 1%. In contrast, the tourism sector fell by over 1%, and the basic resources sector, which includes mining stocks that led the decline by nearly 3% last week, experienced a slight decline.

Following the ISM report, US Treasury yields took a dive, dropping more than 10 basis points from the daily high to hit a new low in over two weeks. Before the ISM manufacturing data was released, the yield on the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond 10-year benchmark government bond rose to 4.30%, hitting a daily high. However, after the data was released, it turned downwards, with the US stock market breaking below 4.20% in the morning session and briefly dropping below 4.18% at midday, hitting a low not seen since February 13. By the end of the bond market session, it was around 4.18%, dropping nearly 12 basis points from the daily high, with a decrease of about 7 basis points during the day, marking a two-day consecutive decline and a total decrease of about 7 basis points for the week, continuing a two-week decline.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, rose above 4.64% in the European stock market pre-market session, hitting a daily high of 4.6434%. Before the ISM manufacturing data was released, the US stock market was above 4.62% in the morning session, but quickly dropped below 4.60% after the data was released. By midday, it fell below 4.52%, reaching a low not seen since February 15, with a decrease of nearly 13 basis points from the daily high. By the end of the bond market session, it was around 4.53%, dropping about 9 basis points during the day and a total decrease of about 16 basis points for the week, ending a four-week consecutive increase. Due to the sharp drop in yields on Friday, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities have generally declined this week.

After ISM, the U.S. dollar index hit a new intraday high for over a week and then fell, while Bitcoin rose by over 20% in a week.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies including the euro, saw gains before and during European stock trading. It approached 104.30 before the release of the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ISM index, refreshing the high since February 20 set on Wednesday, with an intraday increase of over 0.1%. After the ISM announcement, it quickly turned downward, and the decline expanded after Powell's speech. The U.S. stocks fell below 103.90 at midday, hitting a daily low with a 0.3% drop.

By the close of U.S. stocks on Friday, the U.S. dollar index was slightly below 104.00, with an intraday drop of over 0.2%; the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against other ten currencies, fell by over 0.1%, dropping from the high since February 19 and turning downward after a nearly 0.2% rise during the session. Both the U.S. dollar index and the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index have slightly declined this week and failed to rebound after seven consecutive weeks of gains last week.

After Federal Reserve Governor Powell's speech, the U.S. dollar index accelerated its decline and ended the week with a slight drop.

Among non-U.S. currencies, the euro against the U.S. dollar saw a rapid increase after the release of the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ISM data, breaking above 1.0840 during U.S. stock trading to hit a daily high, moving away from the low since February 21 when it fell below 1.0800. By the U.S. stock market close, it was above 1.0830, with an intraday increase of about 0.3%; the British pound against the U.S. dollar had dropped below 1.2600 before the ISM announcement, hitting a low since February 20, but quickly turned upward after the announcement. By midday, it rose above 1.2660 to hit a daily high, and by the U.S. stock market close, it was above 1.2650, with an intraday increase of over 0.2%; the Japanese yen, which rebounded to a two-week high on Thursday, fell back, with the U.S. dollar against the yen rising above 150.70 during early U.S. stock trading to hit a daily high, with an intraday increase of nearly 0.5%, moving away from the low since February 12 when it fell below 149.20. By the U.S. stock market close, it was above 150.10, with an intraday increase of about 0.1%.

The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the U.S. dollar fluctuated slightly on Friday, briefly rising to a daily high of 7.2068 in early Asian trading before turning downward. During U.S. stock trading, it hit a daily low of 7.2155, dropping by 77 points during the day, approaching the low since February 16 when it fell below 7.22. After the release of the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ISM index, the decline narrowed, recovering to 7.21. At 5:59 on March 2nd Beijing time, the offshore RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.2113 yuan, down 35 points from the New York closing on Thursday, rebounding after a five-day decline, with a cumulative drop of 56 points this week, ending two consecutive weeks of gains and marking the first single-week decline since the Year of the Dragon began.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded during Friday's session, with the US stock market briefly rising above $63,000 to refresh the daily high at the close, bouncing back over $2,000 from the intraday low of $60,800 in the Asian session, up nearly 4%. At the close of the US stock market, it was above $62,000, rising by about 1% in the past 24 hours. Although it has not yet approached the high of $64,000 set on Wednesday since November 2021, it has accumulated over 20% in the past seven days.

Crude oil rebounded to a near four-month high, with US oil rising above $80 for the first time in nearly four months during intraday trading. International crude oil futures maintained a rising trend on Friday, with only European stocks turning lower before the US stock market opened. In the early trading session of the US stock market, iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd WTI crude oil rose above $80.80, the first time since November 6 last year, up 3.3% intraday, while Brent crude rose above $84.30, up nearly 3%.

In the end, the crude oil that fell together on Thursday all closed higher. WTI April crude oil futures, which fell for two consecutive days, rose by $1.71, up nearly 2.19%, to $79.97 per barrel; Brent May crude oil futures rose by $1.64, up about 2.00%, to $83.55 per barrel, both hitting the highest closing price since November 6, 2023.

US oil rose by about 3.2% this week, while Brent oil rose by about 3.4%, rebounding after falling last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains in the last seven weeks, with only a cumulative decline last week in February. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, crude oil has declined for 11 weeks out of 21.

London copper saw two consecutive gains this week but still ended lower overall, while London aluminum rose for the fourth consecutive week. Gold hit a historical high, marking the largest increase in two and a half months. London copper and aluminum both rose for two consecutive weeks. London copper closed above $8,500 for the first time in a week, while London aluminum hit a new high in a month.

Basic metals continued to rise collectively this week, with London aluminum, which fell last week, rising nearly 3%, and London nickel, which led the gains with a nearly 7% increase last week, rising nearly 1%. London zinc rose by 0.5%, all rising for three consecutive weeks. London tin, which had stopped after two weeks of gains last week, also rose by 0.4%. On the other hand, London lead fell by nearly 3%, and London copper fell by nearly 0.8% after two weeks of consecutive gains.

New York gold futures turned higher before the European stock market opened and maintained an overall upward trend. The U.S. stock market initially fell but then continued to rise, reaching as high as $2,097.1 at noon, with an intraday increase of nearly 2.1%. Ultimately, COMEX April gold futures closed up by 2%, marking the largest closing increase since December 14, 2023, at $2,095.70 per ounce. This marked the second consecutive day of gains, breaking the previous closing record set on December 27, 2023, and closing above $2,090 for the first time in two months.

Gold rose by 2.33% during this period, marking two consecutive weeks of gains. In the 21 weeks since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, gold futures have only fallen for six weeks, three of which were in January. The largest decline was the week of December 8, with a drop of nearly 3.6%, when spot gold fell below the $2,000 mark during trading hours, similar to the week before.

Spot gold and gold futures accelerated their rise after the release of the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd ISM data. The U.S. stock market rose above $2,088.30 at noon, reaching a new intraday high since December 28, 2023, with an increase of over 2.1%. By the end of the trading day, the U.S. stock market was above $2,080, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%.

Spot gold surged to its highest level since December last year on Friday.