The SPDR S&P 500 is just a stone's throw away from the 5000 mark, with technology leading the way! But what if the "Big Tech Sisters" collapse?

Overnight, with the support of the rebound in technology giants, the US stock market saw further gains, with all three major indices collectively rising for two consecutive days. The Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 approached the 5,000-point mark during trading hours, rising more than 0.9% intraday. The NASDAQ Composite Index rose nearly 1% at midday.

Overall, the NASDAQ Composite Index outperformed the broader market, with the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 coming in second.

The Mag7 (the "Seven Sisters" of technology stocks) soared to new highs, rising 13.5% from its low point in January. Among them, NVIDIA's stock price once again reached $700 during trading hours.

The Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 is just a hair's breadth away from the 5,000-point mark, setting a new all-time high.

The previous historical high for the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 was in January 2022. At that time, 77% of stocks were above the 10-day moving average, 73% were above both the 10-day and 50-day moving averages, and 76% were above the 200-day moving average.

However, this time, only 40% of stocks are above the 10-day moving average, less than 60% are above the 50-day moving average, and less than 70% are above the 200-day moving average.

This once again reflects the "highly concentrated" nature of the US stock market's upward trend.

Wallstreetcn previously mentioned that weighty stocks led by technology giants are driving the broader market higher, highlighting the increasingly narrow trend of the market's gains.

Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan also pointed out that the weight of the "Seven Sisters" of technology stocks currently accounts for 29% of the entire Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500. This wave of tech-driven gains is highly reminiscent of the "dot-com bubble" in 2000, with significant concentration of risk.

Can US stocks continue to rise after the burst of the "bubble"?

Because the rise of tech giants largely influences the future direction of the entire market, there are concerns in the market: if the "Big Seven" can no longer rise, can the upward trend of US stocks continue?

Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO, said that even if large-cap tech stocks are sold off, the overall stock market may still generate positive returns.

According to Belski's data analysis, the average return of the stock market in the year after the top ten weighted stocks in the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 underperformed is 14.3%.

Belski pointed out:

"The only period of loss for this index was during the dot-com bubble in 2001, as we mentioned in our report, so we believe that the current situation is not comparable to the dot-com bubble."

Belski believes that these data indicate that if the so-called "Mag 7" tech stocks falter, the 490 bottom stocks in the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 can bear the weight of the entire market.

From another perspective, the sell-off of large-cap tech stocks is also a normal phenomenon, as a 10% pullback often occurs in the second year of a bull market.

Belski stated:

"Historically, the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 almost always experiences a technical correction at some point in the second year of a bull market. Therefore, even if these stocks (Mag 7) start to struggle, leading to broader market weakness, we do not believe that this alone can negate the prospects of the bull market."

In addition to large-cap tech stocks, the current fundamentals are also favorable for the other 490 stocks.

According to the report data, the trading prices of these 490 stocks are slightly higher than their long-term average P/E ratios. Furthermore, earnings per share seem to have bottomed out in 2023 and started to improve.

Belski stated in the report:

"We believe that the reasonable valuation and the recovery of earnings strongly favor these stocks and recommend that investors allocate their portfolios accordingly."