Breakfast | Chinese concept stocks soar collectively by over 10%, the China-US Economic Working Group holds its third meeting

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Overnight Market Update

The main driving force behind the recent surge in US stocks, semiconductor stocks, temporarily lost momentum, dragging down the two major US stock indices, which narrowly missed a successful rebound on Tuesday. Nvidia, which has been hitting record highs for several days, fell from its peak. The Dow rose 0.36%, the Nasdaq rose 0.07%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.2%.

New York Community Bancorp fell 22%, AMD fell more than 3%. Tesla rose 2.2%, Meta fell 1%, Amazon also fell for two consecutive days, and Netflix fell 1.1%; Apple rose nearly 0.9%, Alphabet rose more than 0.3%, rising for four consecutive days.

Overall, popular Chinese concept stocks rose, outperforming the broader market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 5.9%, and Alibaba rose 4.8%. Nio rose nearly 12.1%, XPeng rose nearly 12%, and Li Auto rose 10.5%. Bilibili rose more than 10%, JD.com rose more than 7%, NetEase rose more than 6%, Baidu and Pinduoduo rose nearly 4%.

Blue Chips and Hot Stocks

Daiwa Securities: Lowered Tesla's target price from $245 to $195, and downgraded the rating from Buy to Neutral. Increasing concerns about governance issues may limit Tesla's inclination for long-term investment and innovation.

In about six weeks, Nvidia's market value has increased by about $500 billion, almost equivalent to the entire market value of Tesla. Nvidia may surpass Amazon and Alphabet to become the third most valuable US company, after Microsoft and Apple.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) report shows that Alaska Airlines' Boeing Max 9 aircraft cabin door is missing bolts.

The Boeing union is demanding a 40% pay raise over three to four years and threatens to consider a strike.

Insiders: Amazon is laying off hundreds of employees in its subsidiary One Medical.

Ford expects losses from electric vehicles to increase to $5 billion to $5.5 billion by 2024. The CFO no longer expects the profit margin of electric vehicles to reach 8% by the end of 2026 and does not commit to a new profit margin target for electric vehicles.

TSMC, Sony Semiconductor, Denso, and Toyota announced further investment in TSMC's controlling manufacturing subsidiary in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, to establish a second wafer fab, which is planned to start operation at the end of 2027. In addition, TSMC's board of directors approved an investment of up to $5 billion in TSMC's project in Arizona, USA.

SMIC's fourth-quarter sales revenue was $1.678 billion, a MoM increase of 3.6%; the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was $175 million, a QoQ increase of 54.7%. It is expected that the Q1 2024 revenue will remain flat to a 2% increase, with a gross margin between 9% and 11%.

UBS Group reported a net loss of $279 million in the fourth quarter, exceeding the previous estimate of $246.2 million. UBS will restart its share buyback program this year, with a maximum repurchase of $1 billion in the second half of the year. The cost-saving target has been raised from the previous $10 billion to $13 billion.

Ford's fourth-quarter revenue was $46 billion, expected $40.12 billion; net loss was $526 million, expected $396 million. It is expected that the adjusted EBITDA for 2024 will be $10 billion to $12 billion, while analysts expect $9.24 billion. The company will add a dividend payment of $0.18 per share. Ford's stock rose more than 6% after hours.

Eli Lilly's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 was $9.3534 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%. Net profit was $2.1896 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Earnings per share were $2.42, a year-on-year increase of 13%.

Spotify's total revenue in the fourth quarter of last year was 3.7 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 16%; operating loss was 75 million euros, smaller than previously expected; it is expected to have a total revenue of 3.6 billion euros in the first quarter of this year.

According to media reports, "China Resources Land has made major adjustments, including a major organizational restructuring and the rotation of many regional company leaders, which is planned to be fully implemented by the end of February." A person close to China Resources Land confirmed the news.

Huawei has announced its annual dividend plan, with an expected dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling approximately 77 billion yuan.

Macro: Taking you around the world

A recent report by Citigroup strategists warns of the risk of a major sell-off in technology stocks, believing that investors have a very positive view of technology stocks in terms of their positions, to the extent that any sell-off could trigger a larger-scale crash.

Federal Reserve's Mester said that when the Fed cuts interest rates, it may do so gradually; cutting rates too early would be a mistake. Still inclined to have three rate cuts in 2024; unwilling to provide a timetable for rate cuts, believing that there is no urgency for rate cuts.

The China-U.S. Economic Working Group held its third meeting in Beijing, with the Chinese side expressing concerns about U.S. tariffs on China, restrictions on bilateral investment, and sanctions against Chinese companies. Both sides agreed to continue communication.

The Semiconductor Industry Association of the United States predicts that demand for chips in multiple fields will increase, and the global chip industry is expected to rebound significantly this year, with sales expected to grow by 13% to a record high of nearly $600 billion.

China Securities Regulatory Commission: Suspend the increase in the scale of securities lending and gradually settle the existing stock. Will continue to coordinate and guide public funds, private funds, securities companies, social security funds, insurance institutions, pension funds, and other institutional investors to enter the market with greater force, encourage and support listed companies to increase their repurchase and holdings, and introduce more incremental funds into the A-share market.

According to Jiemian, Goldman Sachs has released a research report on A-share stabilization funds: the basic scale that can stabilize the market is about 200 billion yuan, and there are abundant potential sources of funds.

The National Healthcare Security Administration of China is exploring new regulations on the initial pricing of newly listed drugs, supporting high-quality innovative drugs to obtain "returns commensurate with high investment and high risk".