Can the 'Seven Giants' continue to play and dance this year? Goldman Sachs: It depends on their performance.
Goldman Sachs stock strategist said that strong sales growth will be the key to the continued outstanding performance of the "Big Seven" stocks in the US stock market after their explosive rise in 2023. These seven stocks have performed well so far, with a return rate of 7.9%, while the return rate of other component stocks of Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 is only 2.6%. It is expected that by 2026, the average annual sales growth rate of these seven companies will reach 12%, while the annual sales growth rate of other companies in Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 will only be 3%. Goldman Sachs believes that the sales growth of these seven stocks will be their most important driving force.
Zhitong App has learned that Goldman Sachs stock strategist believes that strong sales growth will be the key to the continued outstanding performance of the "Big Seven" stocks in the US stock market after their explosive rise in 2023.
Data shows that the "Big Seven" stocks in the US market, including Apple (AAPL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Meta (META.US), and Tesla (TSLA.US), achieved gains ranging from 50% to 240% in 2023. These stocks accounted for over 60% of the total return of the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 last year.
Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin and his team stated that these seven stocks have also performed well so far this year, with a return rate of 7.9%, compared to 2.6% for the other 493 constituent stocks of the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500. The strategist predicts that by 2026, the average annual sales growth rate of these seven companies will reach 12%, while the annual sales growth rate of the other 493 companies in the Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 will only be 3%.
The strategist said, "Although factors such as increased hedge fund positions, numerous antitrust lawsuits by the US Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, and changes in the macro environment will affect the returns of these stocks, we believe that sales growth will be the most important driving force for these seven stocks."
According to Goldman Sachs data, since December 2019, the "Big Seven" stocks have achieved a total annualized return rate of 28%, most of which was driven by fundamental improvements rather than valuation expansion. It is worth mentioning that high valuation is the most common "opposing opinion" that Goldman Sachs hears from investors regarding the "Big Seven" stocks. However, Goldman Sachs stated that the premium of the "Big Seven" stocks relative to the market's 63% P/E ratio is much lower than the peak premium of 103% in 2021. Goldman Sachs also added that, at the same time, the high-quality attributes of these seven stocks protect them from the impact of rising interest rates, while other tech stocks and growth stocks are under pressure from rising interest rates.
The Goldman Sachs strategist said, "In the high bond yield environment of the past 24 months, these seven stocks have performed well, largely due to their strong balance sheets and higher profit margins."