Earnings Report Preview | Multiple adverse factors combined, Pfizer's Q4 performance may experience a significant decline.

Zhitong App has learned that Pfizer will announce its fourth-quarter earnings for 2023 before the opening of the US stock market on Tuesday. Market expectations are that the company's Q4 revenue will be $14.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 41%; the loss per share will be $0.18, while the earnings per share in the same period last year were $1.14.

In mid-December last year, Pfizer announced lower-than-expected performance guidance for 2024 before completing the acquisition of Seagen (SGEN.US). Prior to this, the company had already lowered its performance guidance for 2023 in October last year, citing changes in the supply agreement with the US government and lower-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 products.

Due to the bleak profit outlook, Wall Street's view of Pfizer has become increasingly pessimistic.

In the past three months, Pfizer's fourth-quarter earnings expectations have been revised downward 13 times, with only one upward revision.

"During the period when the revised agreement with the US government had a negative impact on revenue and the completion of the Seagen transaction, there will be many variables in the fourth-quarter performance of 2023," Barclays said last week. The bank has a "hold" rating on Pfizer with a target price of $28.

However, when it comes to forecasts, "under promise and over deliver" seems to be Pfizer's strategy. In the past two years, the company has exceeded Wall Street's expectations for quarterly earnings 92% of the time and exceeded revenue expectations 67% of the time.

Barclays analyst Carter Gould wrote, "More and more bullish investors believe that Pfizer's 2024 performance forecast is too conservative, and we believe it is too early to draw conclusions now." He pointed out that it may still be too early for the company to update its 2024 performance forecast.

Barclays is focusing on Pfizer's earnings to gain a clearer understanding of the company's COVID-19 product licensing, Seagen integration, and the latest developments in its weight loss drug project.

Another focus for investors will be Pfizer's RSV vaccine, Abrysvo. Barclays expects sales of the vaccine to exceed expectations, but market share to remain stagnant or shrink. In contrast, GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK.US) Arexvy fourth-quarter total prescription data is more favorable.

In December last year, Pfizer decided to discontinue the development of the oral weight loss therapy danuglipron with a twice-daily dosing frequency due to a high incidence of side effects, and instead focus on a once-daily dosing frequency therapy.

As of Monday's close, Pfizer rose 0.04% to $27.48. After a sharp decline of 41% last year, the stock has fallen 3% so far this year.