Apple's "car-making ambition" to "stall"? Intends to lower autonomous driving to L2+ and postpone release to 2028.

According to Zhitong App, Apple's decade-long efforts in the car manufacturing industry have reached a critical point of success or failure. Compared to its ambitious plans in the past, the company has now shifted its strategy to ultimately bring electric vehicles to the market. Insider sources revealed that Apple initially envisioned a fully autonomous vehicle, but is currently focusing on developing an electric vehicle with limited autonomous driving capabilities.

However, the target release date for Apple's car project continues to be delayed. Insiders suggest that the company now expects to launch the vehicle no earlier than 2028, which is approximately two years later than the most recent prediction. A female spokesperson from Apple declined to comment on the company's plans.

Apple's secretive car project, codenamed Titan and T172, has been one of its most ambitious and tumultuous endeavors to date. Since its formation in 2014, the project has undergone several leadership changes and experienced multiple rounds of layoffs, key strategic adjustments, and numerous delays.

Nevertheless, it remains one of the company's potential major projects and a new category that could help revitalize its stagnant revenue growth. Last year, Apple's revenue stagnated due to the maturing smartphone industry and slowing growth in its largest overseas market, China.

Slowing sales prompt Apple to seek new growth drivers

However, Apple has been struggling on its journey to enter the car industry.

As of the end of 2022, the company aimed to launch a vehicle with advanced autonomous driving capabilities on highways by 2026. Initially, Apple had high requirements for car design, aiming to achieve fully autonomous driving on highways in approved regions in North America under most conditions without human intervention. After the debut of the first car, Apple planned to release an upgraded system later to support Level 4 autonomous driving and expand to more regions. In this case, the car would be able to operate independently but only under specific conditions. Level 5 autonomous driving would mean that the car could operate autonomously anywhere, under any circumstances.

However, insider sources revealed that Apple is now developing a more basic driver-assistance system, referred to as a Level 2+ system, similar to Tesla's current standard for autonomous driving. This system still requires the driver to pay attention to the road conditions and be ready to take over when necessary.

Different Definitions of Autonomous Driving Levels

Internally, this transition is seen as a crucial moment for Apple's car project. Some believe that the company is at a crossroads: either Apple can deliver the product with lowered expectations, or executives will seriously reconsider the significance of the project. Of course, Apple may also change course again and adopt a new strategy.

The numerous challenges have brought multiple pressures to Apple's car project and have prompted the company to make a strategic shift. After a series of intense meetings involving the Apple board, project leader Kevin Lynch, and CEO Tim Cook, a new strategy was finally approved. According to insiders, the board has been pressuring Apple's leadership on the car project for several months in 2023.

Over the past decade, autonomous driving cars have been one of Apple's most expensive research and development projects. Apple has spent hundreds of millions of dollars each year on employee salaries, cloud systems for controlling autonomous driving computers, closed-road testing, and engineering design for car components and chips. Apple has also spent years on power systems, autonomous driving hardware and software, car interiors and exteriors, and other key components. However, the car has never successfully entered the formal prototype stage. Insiders reveal that the company's management hopes to take a new approach to ultimately achieve this goal.

Uncertainty has plagued this project for years. Former project leader Doug Field left in 2021, in part because he did not believe that senior management would officially approve the release of a car. Prior to Apple, Field was responsible for engineering design at Tesla and is currently in charge of Ford's electric vehicle project.

Even with the new plan, some Apple executives remain skeptical about whether the car can bring profit margins similar to the iPhone. Nevertheless, a car priced at around $100,000 would still contribute to increasing Apple's revenue.

Furthermore, entering the car market will help Apple establish a presence in the rapidly growing electric vehicle field. It is worth noting that Apple's tech peers have become important players in the automotive industry. Amazon has invested in Rivian Automotive, which produces delivery trucks. Alphabet's Waymo division has increased its efforts in developing autonomous driving cars. Even major competitors in China, such as Huawei and Xiaomi, have recently launched autonomous driving cars.

Looking back at past attempts, Apple once envisioned a car without a steering wheel and pedals, but this idea has now been put aside. The company also developed a remote command center that could take over the driver's work, but after downgrading the autonomous driving system, this service may lose its necessity.

So far, Apple's most significant progress in the automotive field has been the development of the CarPlay software, which allows drivers to use iPhone features such as maps and Siri. It is reported that the software will undergo a redesign this year, with deeper integration into the car's control and entertainment systems.

According to sources, the latest plan for the car is seen internally as Tesla's "me-too product" - a product that has not made significant breakthroughs. However, the company seems to hope to make the car stand out through stylish design, safety systems, and a unique user interface.

In addition, the above-mentioned sources said that as part of the new plan, Apple is considering further adjustments to the hardware engineering and automation software team management. Many executives involved in the project come from car companies such as Ford, Porsche, and Lamborghini, in addition to Apple senior executive Lynch, who is responsible for smartwatch software development.