Behind the price reduction of Apple: A dual loss for consumer market and capital market?

Is Apple losing its appeal?

On January 15th, Apple's official website unexpectedly announced an upcoming promotion called "Spring Festival Limited Time Offer," which will take place from January 18th to 21st. As part of the promotion, the Apple 15 series will be discounted by 500 yuan, and some laptop products will see a maximum discount of 800 yuan. The iPad Pro, iPad Air, and other products will also have corresponding price reductions.

Source: Apple Official Website

In the past, Apple's new product series would typically be discounted after the Spring Festival or during the "618" shopping festival in the following year. Most discounts would appear on third-party platforms, while the official website prices remained firm. It is rare for Apple to announce a direct price reduction on its official website.

Analysts generally believe that the "unusual price reduction" by Apple is partly due to a significant decline in sales of the Apple series. Investment bank Jefferies stated in a report that in the first week of 2024, Apple's sales in China dropped sharply, with a year-on-year decline of 30%.

On the other hand, the price reduction is also related to Apple's "setbacks" in the capital market. Last week, several investment banks, including Barclays, expressed bearish views on Apple, citing factors such as weak sales, lack of innovation, and Microsoft's clear advantage in the AI field. They believe that Apple may no longer be a growth stock.

Under the influence of the bearish sentiment from multiple institutions, Apple's stock price has fallen by more than 6% from its closing historical high one month ago, and its market value was temporarily surpassed by Microsoft.

Apple's Sales in China Face Challenges

The market's lukewarm response to the newly released Apple 15 series has become an important driver for Apple's price reduction.

According to a report by research firm Counterpoint Research, the sales of the Apple 15 series in China declined by 4.5% in the first 17 days after its launch, compared to the Apple 14 series. Sales continue to face challenges.

A report by Jefferies analyst pointed out that in the first week of 2024, Apple's sales in China decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year. Analysts believe that the sharp decline in Apple's sales is related to intense competition, primarily from domestic Chinese brands, especially Huawei's strong counterattack. The report stated that in the fourth quarter of 2023, Huawei's market share in the Chinese smartphone market increased by approximately 6%.According to Jefferies analysts, Apple will continue to face greater pressure from domestic Chinese smartphone brands in 2024. The forecast shows that Apple's shipments will continue to decline by double digits in 2024, while Huawei's market share is expected to continue to expand:

Huawei's global smartphone shipments in 2024 are expected to reach about 64 million units, far exceeding the estimated less than 35 million units in 2023.

Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam stated to Wall Street News that with the rapid recovery of Huawei's mobile phones, the mobile phone business will once again become an important source of revenue for Huawei, and other manufacturers will also need to cope with the pressure brought by Huawei's return.

According to Counterpoint data, although Huawei's sales ranking in the third quarter is still sixth, sales have increased by 37% year-on-year, and market share has increased to 12.9%.

In the highly competitive high-end market, Huawei's rebound is even more pronounced. BCI data shows that in the market segment above 4,000 yuan, Huawei's market share in November was about 22.3%, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, second only to Apple.

Not only Huawei, but Xiaomi is also eroding Apple's market share in the high-end market with its Xiaomi 14 series. In November last year, Xiaomi's market share of high-end smartphones increased by 11.8% year-on-year to 14.4%, second only to Apple and Huawei.

Is Apple no longer a growth stock?

In addition to Apple's sluggish sales, analysts believe that Apple may no longer be a growth stock, and its disruptive innovation capabilities have declined in recent years in the current AI wave.

Investment research firm Hedgeye has listed Apple as its latest short-selling target. Hedgeye believes that as Apple's sales weaken, lack of innovation, and intensified competition from Microsoft AI PCs, Apple's revenue growth will remain weak until 2025.

Barclays previously downgraded Apple's stock rating from "hold" to "underweight" for the first time since 2019. At the same time, analysts slightly lowered Apple's target price from $161 to $160, indicating that Barclays expects Apple's stock price to fall by about 17% in the next year.

Barclays predicts that Apple's service business growth will slow down, regulatory risks will increase, and the return on the ecosystem will decrease. It also warns that Apple's stock valuation is high, and while the valuation multiple expands, the performance remains weak, and the stock price rise is not sustainable.

In addition to "price promotions," Apple will hope to rely on the mixed reality headset Vision Pro. Vision Pro will start accepting reservations on January 19 and will be available on February 2, with a price of $3,499.Recently, Apple's "prophet" and Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi wrote an article stating that due to the lack of information about the upcoming Vision series products, it is not currently a trading theme. The market response to Vision Pro is the key observation point for Apple's supply chain this year. If Vision Pro cannot sell out instantly, it will be lower than expected, which will have an impact on Apple and the supply chain.