The strongest start since 1997! How long will the "severely oversold" US dollar rebound this time?

At the beginning of 2024, global stock and bond markets plummeted, but the US dollar soared. In the first two trading days of 2024, the Invesco DB US DLR Index TR Bullish Fund rose by 1.15%, marking the strongest start since 1997. The main reason for the rise in the US dollar is that traders have started to reduce their bets on the magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2024. On January 3rd, local time, the latest minutes of the December meeting released by the Fed reiterated the maintenance of restrictive interest rates for a period of time, while hinting that the rate hikes have ended, but no timetable for rate cuts was given. After the release of the Fed's meeting minutes, the US dollar reached an intraday high, but as the market digested the latest minutes, the dollar's gains narrowed, closing up 0.29% on the day. In addition to the Fed, the upcoming labor market data and market oversold signals also provided support for the rise in the US dollar. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index recently fell below 30, suggesting that the dollar is in an "oversold" state and its trend may soon reverse. In the past year, the US dollar RSI indicator has only fallen below 30 four times. The first two times occurred with expectations of the Fed tightening monetary policy, and the Invesco DB US DLR Index TR Bullish Fund rose by over 4% from early February to mid-March 2023, and by nearly 7% from mid-July to early October. From November 29th to December 11th, 2023, the Invesco DB US DLR Index TR Bullish Fund had a smaller and shorter increase, as market bets on Fed rate cuts increased. Nevertheless, the Invesco DB US DLR Index TR Bullish Fund still rose by 1.4% from the low point before touching the 200-day moving average pressure level. This time, the Invesco DB US DLR Index TR Bullish Fund still has about 1% room for further increase before touching the 200-day moving average.