UBS: Expects 24-hour customs clearance at ports to have a negative impact on Hong Kong's retail tourism industry
The Hong Kong government plans to increase the number of 24-hour clearance ports to improve the cross-border experience. UBS Group AG predicts that this will have a negative impact on the retail and tourism industry in Hong Kong, which may pose greater challenges for WHARF REIC, HYSAN DEV, and LINK REIT. It is forecasted that Hong Kong's retail sales may experience negative growth in 2024. The government hopes to include Luohu and Lok Ma Chau in the plan in the first phase, and expects more ports such as Shenzhen Bay and Liantang to provide 24-hour clearance in the future.
According to Zhitong App, UBS Group AG has released a research report stating that the Hong Kong government plans to increase the number of 24-hour clearance ports in addition to the current Huanggang Port and Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge for large-scale events in the future. This is aimed at improving the cross-border experience. The bank believes that increasing the number of ports with 24-hour clearance, considering the continuous outflow of local consumption and fewer overnight visitors from the mainland, will have a negative impact on Hong Kong's retail and tourism industries. UBS Group AG predicts that Hong Kong's retail sales will still experience moderate to high positive growth in November/December 2023, but negative growth may occur in 2024. It is also expected that WHARF REIC (01997), HYSAN DEV (00014), and LINK REIT (00083) may face greater challenges.
UBS Group AG stated that in the major control ports, the Hong Kong government hopes to include Luohu and Lok Ma Chau in the plan in the first phase. UBS Group AG predicts that more ports will provide 24-hour clearance in the future, such as Shenzhen Bay and Liantang. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed these suggestions to the Hong Kong government on December 26th of last year, aiming to further promote the integration of the Greater Bay Area.
It is reported that the Hong Kong Victoria Harbour New Year's Eve fireworks display attracted 480,000 citizens and tourists, including many mainland visitors who returned on the same day, causing overnight congestion in cross-border traffic and ports. Hong Kong's Chief Secretary for Administration, Matthew Cheung, pointed out that the government will strengthen coordination and deployment in three aspects, including holding high-level meetings in advance to discuss traffic arrangements for large-scale events, discussing with mainland departments to extend the opening hours of railway ports and increase the number of 24-hour clearance ports.