Guo Mingchi: Estimated shipment of approximately 500,000 units for Vision Pro in 2024.

Zhitong App learned that on December 25th, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi wrote an article stating that the estimated shipment of Vision Pro in 2024 is about 500,000 units. Currently, Vision Pro has entered mass production and is expected to have a large number of shipments starting in the first week of January 2024. Based on the current shipment schedule, Apple (AAPL.US) is most likely to release Vision Pro at the end of January or the beginning of February next year.

Guo Mingchi stated that the replenishment of Android phone inventory in this wave started from May to July. After Huawei launched the Mate 60 Pro at the end of August, the demand exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in the procurement of zero components, forcing competitors to follow suit to ensure sufficient zero components, thereby boosting the strength of inventory replenishment. This inventory replenishment is expected to end in January 2024. It should be noted that the strong force of inventory replenishment may create an illusion of improved demand structure.

Different from the market's generally optimistic view of the demand for Android phones in 2024, Guo Mingchi suggested that investors pay attention to whether a situation similar to the lack of improvement in demand after the replenishment of PC and TV inventory in 2-3Q23 will occur. The changes in real demand/orders after inventory replenishment will affect the trading atmosphere of upstream semiconductor and AI phone-related stocks.

In addition, Guo Mingchi believes that AI devices/PCs/phones are the key to replacement demand in the coming years. From the perspective of establishing user awareness of AI devices, user behavior, and support for third-party developers, among relevant industry players (operating systems, software services, terminal brands, processors, and zero components), operating system providers have the greatest influence on the trend of AI devices. The mainstream hardware specifications of AI devices in 2024 will include built-in 7-10B LLM (for inference), 40-50 TOPS of AI computing power, inference speeds of 10-20 token/s or higher, 8-16GB or more of DRAM, etc. Investment opportunities come from the validation of user experience and the driving force of specification upgrades created by the mainstream specifications mentioned above.

It can be expected that all relevant industry players will focus on AI PCs/phones as a key promotion point in 2024. Therefore, all electronic product exhibitions in 2024 may serve as catalysts for the stock prices of AI PC/phone-related manufacturers, including CES (January), MWC (February), WWDC (June), Computex (June), Google I/O (May), Apple's new iPhone launch event (September), IFA (September), Apple's new Mac launch event (4Q), Microsoft's new product launch event (2H), and new product launch events of major brands, etc.