Is Altman returning to OpenAI? The biggest winners and losers are: Microsoft!

Altman's future is uncertain, and his decision will have a significant impact on Microsoft.

In the early morning of November 20th, Sam Altman posted a selfie on social media. In the photo, he was wearing an OpenAI badge with the label "Guest 04." The caption read, "This is the first and last time I wear these."

It is speculated that Altman returned to headquarters to negotiate with the board about his "departure."

According to a previous report by Wall Street Journal, several major shareholders, including Microsoft, have been pressuring the board to ask Altman to stay.

Although the specific progress of the discussions has not been leaked, it is certain that Altman's departure or stay will not only bring uncertainty to the future of OpenAI but also have a "double-edged sword" effect on Microsoft.

If Altman leaves, Microsoft will suffer a major blow.

As the largest investor in OpenAI, Microsoft will face a comprehensive impact if Altman indeed leaves.

First and foremost, this "most successful" investment by Microsoft may end in failure. Microsoft is currently the biggest supporter and most important partner of OpenAI. According to a previous report by Wall Street Journal, Microsoft has invested a total of $13 billion in OpenAI over the past five years.

Furthermore, it is reported that Microsoft has invested over $1 billion in a for-profit division of OpenAI and reportedly owns up to 49% of the shares.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella once said, "We have a long-term agreement with OpenAI that gives us access to everything we need to realize our innovation agenda and exciting product roadmap, and we continue to be committed to our partnership with Mira and the team."

The collaboration with OpenAI has helped Microsoft seize the opportunity in the generative AI field, allowing this traditional tech giant to regain "high growth, high profit, high market value," and shine in the AI field where it has always lagged behind Google.And once Altman leaves, it is likely to lead to a wave of resignations among OpenAI employees, and the door to the most important core technology may no longer be open to Microsoft, and Microsoft's envisioned investment prospects may become a bubble.

As a result, Microsoft's product services will suffer heavy blows. Currently, many of Microsoft's services and products incorporate OpenAI technology, and there are reports that Microsoft has been cutting and ending various internal AI projects to focus on OpenAI's technology.

Just last week, Microsoft announced more than 100 new products and features centered around AI in areas such as cloud computing infrastructure, Model as a Service (MaaS), data platforms, and the Copilot AI assistant.

On the day Altman resigned, co-founder Greg Brockman and three senior researchers also resigned. According to previous media reports, more OpenAI employees have threatened to resign if Altman does not return.

Therefore, Altman's departure will result in the loss of a group of core technology backbone and employees for Microsoft, and the corresponding products and services will be difficult to continue, while Microsoft itself does not have a corresponding backup plan for its AI strategy.

The final potential but most serious crisis is that Microsoft's leading position in the field of AI is not guaranteed.

Investing in OpenAI has put Microsoft in an advantageous position in the AI wave, and through "long-term collaboration," Microsoft can have deep access to and monopolize the core technology of AI to maintain its leading position.

And worse than Altman's departure is that Google or Amazon, the two main competitors, will bring Altman under their wings.

Webush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a report:

"The biggest concern is that Altman will eventually fall into the hands of Google or Amazon, which would be a nightmare for Microsoft."

If Altman returns, Microsoft hopes to gain a seat on the board of directors

Altman previously mentioned that one of the conditions for his return is that the existing board of directors (the people who fired him) must step down and he will serve on the board after returning to OpenAI. Currently, progress seems to be stuck on this issue: who will take over the board of directors.

Microsoft becomes a possible candidate, Ives said:

"There is growing consensus in Silicon Valley and Wall Street that the days of this four-person board are numbered, and Altman will return to OpenAI, ultimately putting Microsoft in a more favorable position in controlling the strategic direction of OpenAI."According to insiders, Microsoft will either have a seat on the OpenAI board or become a non-voting board observer.

In simple terms, Altman's return means that there will be significant changes in the management team, and Microsoft may take this opportunity to have a greater influence on strategic decision-making.

On the other hand, according to information from insiders, if Altman cannot return to OpenAI, Microsoft is also considering investing in Altman's new venture.

Reportedly, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is mediating discussions between Altman, former OpenAI President Greg Brockman, and the four current board members. The media has also reported that Microsoft is eager to resolve this matter before the stock market opens tomorrow morning.

Although there was no prior warning and no opportunity to express opinions on the decision to remove Altman from the board, Microsoft has still issued a statement shortly after the incident stating that they are "still committed" to their partnership with this AI company.

After all, for now, it is much safer to exert pressure on OpenAI and ensure Altman's safe return.