Be cautious! Warren Buffett has sold approximately $23.6 billion worth of stocks this year. Is the future of the US stock market worrisome?

Zhitong
2023.11.20 01:55
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Recently, "stock god" Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway released its latest portfolio report, and the position adjustments in it have raised warning signals for some analysts.

Zhitong App learned recently that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US) has released its latest portfolio report, and the adjustments in its positions have raised concerns among some analysts.

According to Berkshire Hathaway's latest filing, the institution sold more assets than it bought in the third quarter. Given its impressive track record, retail investors should remain cautious.

Lee Munson, the CEO of Portfolio Wealth, said in an interview, "The message he is conveying is to be cautious... I think he sees trouble ahead for next year."

Munson added, "He didn't see any good trades... It's hard to find good companies with reasonable valuations."

In fact, since January 1st, Buffett has sold stocks worth about $23.6 billion, making him the net seller of stocks this year. This is in stark contrast to his portfolio adjustments in 2022 when he was a net buyer of stocks.

Meanwhile, according to Berkshire Hathaway's third-quarter earnings report, the company's cash holdings reached a record high of $157.24 billion as of the end of the quarter.

The high valuations may be the reason why the company chose not to engage in large-scale transactions. Meyer Shields, a stock analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said that if valuations do not decrease with rising interest rates, "then the right thing to do is nothing."

Greggory Warren, an analyst at Morningstar, said Buffett's recent decisions reflect his steadfast "patience," and the Oracle of Omaha himself has emphasized that patience is the key to successful investing.

"Discipline keeps Berkshire Hathaway from making major mistakes," Warren said. "Their current cash balance is because they haven't made many foolish decisions."

The portfolio report shows that Berkshire Hathaway liquidated its positions in General Motors (GM.US), Procter & Gamble (PG.US), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) in the third quarter, while reducing its holdings in HP (HPQ.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and Chevron (CVX.US).

In addition, Apple (AAPL.US) remains Berkshire Hathaway's top holding, accounting for 50.04% of its portfolio, with no change in the number of shares held compared to the previous quarter. Except for Chevron, the top five holdings in Buffett's portfolio remained unchanged from the previous quarter.

An analyst commented that this is an investment strategy that shows his unwavering confidence in the stocks he believes in.

Dan Ives, a senior stock analyst at Wedbush, said in an interview, "Buffett believes in the dim prospects of General Motors and other companies, while the future of Apple is bright. This is the beginning of the next phase of Apple's growth story, and Buffett knows... Selling Apple now is like leaving Taylor Swift's concert after the first song." Since the beginning of this year, Berkshire Hathaway's Class A and Class B stocks have risen by approximately 16%, compared to a cumulative increase of 17.5% for the S&P 500 index during the same period.