The Silent Majority: Without these 10 large-cap stocks, the US stock market's performance this year would be "zero growth".
The most "top-heavy" market in history.
After the Silicon Valley banking crisis in March this year, we found that the performance of the US stock market was unusually concentrated. At that time, according to data from Societe Generale, the top ten largest stocks accounted for 86% of the overall index return.
Fast forward to now, with only 8 weeks left until the end of the year, the situation seems to have not changed much: the top ten largest stocks account for a staggering 89% of the entire index return. Jitesh Kumar from Societe Generale Bank said:
"In years when the S&P 500 index has risen by at least 10%, this year's stock market is the most concentrated."
The next chart is even more striking: in the past 15 years, the top ten largest stocks in the S&P 500 have continuously contributed to the overall index return!
Similar to the conclusion of Societe Generale Bank, a recent document published by the Federal Reserve also pointed out the same trend.
The document shows that in the past 10 years, the profits of medium-sized companies in the United States have continued to decline, while the largest companies have been able to continuously increase their profits. It seems that the design mechanism of the entire market only rewards the top ten largest companies, but punishes all other companies.
Last but equally important, this abnormally concentrated market has also reduced the correlation between stocks, thereby reducing volatility.
Some market analysts point out that this "false moment of happiness" will not last long. Societe Generale Bank predicts:
"When the economy further weakens and the interest rate market digests the expectation of a substantial interest rate cut, this situation will change."
