Strong signals of recovery, why are US chip stocks still hovering below summer highs?

According to the Zhongtong Finance APP, the stock prices of chip stocks in the US have been hovering below the peak reached during this year's artificial intelligence boom, and there are no signs of a new driving force from the recovery in demand for smartphones and personal computers.

The latest earnings reports from Intel (INTC.US) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) indicate that the worst period for the electronic terminal market may be over. Intel had previously predicted that sales would resume growth in the fourth quarter, partly due to the improvement in demand for personal computers, and the company's stock price has also seen its largest increase in nearly three years. Samsung Electronics predicts that the semiconductor market will recover next year. Semiconductor giants TSMC (TSM.US), Micron Technology (MU.US), and SK Hynix have all issued signals of a recovery in chip demand in the third quarter.

However, these encouraging signals have failed to trigger a new round of gains in chip-related stock indices. After the frenzy of buying related to artificial intelligence, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen 30% year-to-date, but this is only about half of the peak in the summer.

Analysts point out that the possibility of an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the impact of rising global interest rates, and ongoing concerns about the economic recession have brought new risks to the global economy. Lee Seung-Woo, a chip industry analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities, said, "Due to the possibility of macroeconomic factors shaking the market, participants find it difficult to muster the courage. For a period of time, chip stock prices will fluctuate sharply between optimism and pessimism."

Yoon Joonwon, a fund manager at DS Asset Management Co., commented on Samsung Electronics' performance, saying, "Overall, it's not bad. But in the end, no one can be sure whether the demand for smartphones and personal computers will really improve next year. We haven't gotten out of the woods yet."

Even AI-themed trading has recently come under scrutiny. The leader in the field of AI chips, NVIDIA (NVDA.US), has seen its gains narrow to below 200% this year. AMD (AMD.US) has announced weak sales guidance for the fourth quarter, although early orders for its new AI chips are strong.

The good news is that the recent pullback in chip stocks may have already absorbed some of the concerns. Analysts at Susquehanna Financial point out that since the third quarter, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has underperformed the S&P 500, indicating lower expectations for the index, which may be beneficial for stock prices.