Wallstreetcn
2023.10.24 20:52
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The Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, the Chinese concept index surged 4%, Xiaopeng Motors soared over 10%, and long-term bond yields moved away from a 16-year high.

In October, the preliminary reading of the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the United States returned to expansion for the first time in six months, but business activity in the Eurozone and the UK continued to shrink. Market expectations are that the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England will not raise interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average stopped its four-day decline and rose more than 330 points intraday, while the S&P 500 Index briefly rose 1%. Earnings reports led to a nearly 5% after-hours increase in Microsoft's stock, while Google's stock fell by about 6%. Chinese concept stocks performed strongly for two consecutive days, with Ideal Motors and Bilibili both rising more than 7%, NIO rising 6.6%, and GDS Holdings leading the blockchain sector with an increase of nearly 13%. The decline in long-term US bond yields during the trading session boosted risk assets. European data highlighted pessimistic demand, and oil prices fell for three consecutive days to a new low in over a week. The US dollar rose above 106, breaking away from a one-month low, and the yen fell below 150. Bitcoin briefly rose 10% and broke through $35,000. Gold continued to retreat from its five-month high, and positive news from China helped London copper break away from its 11-month low.

US October Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading of 50, returned to expansion territory for the first time in six months. The preliminary reading of the Services PMI was 50.9, higher than expected and the previous value, reaching a three-month high. This led to a slight increase in the Composite PMI preliminary reading to 51, also reaching a three-month high.

Some analysts believe that this indicates that the US manufacturing sector is emerging from a five-month contraction as new orders rebound. Service sector activity is also moderately accelerating under signs of easing inflationary pressures. All of this has led to a slight increase in commercial output in the US in October.

However, business activity in the Eurozone and the UK unexpectedly deteriorated in October, with a decline in demand causing the preliminary reading of the Eurozone PMI to fall to a three-year low, the lowest in ten and a half years if excluding the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs in Germany, France, and the UK all contracted, intensifying concerns about Europe entering a recession. Some analysts also suggest that the Eurozone will face energy shocks for the second consecutive winter.

It is widely expected that the European Central Bank this week, as well as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England next week, will refrain from raising interest rates. Reports suggest that ECB President Lagarde expressed encouragement about inflation progress ahead of Thursday's monetary policy meeting, but expressed concerns about the fiscal deadlock in the European Union. She warned that the Eurozone economy will face stagnation and downside risks in the coming quarters, although price risks have become more balanced.

Dow Jones ends four-day losing streak, S&P ends five-day losing streak, Nasdaq rises nearly 1%, Chinese concept stocks surge 4%, and XPeng Motors rises over 10%.

On Tuesday, October 24th, stabilizing US bond yields and positive corporate earnings reports stimulated risk appetite. US stocks opened high and continued to rise, collectively reaching the daily high within the first 90 minutes of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 330 points or 1%, surpassing the 33,000-point mark, while the S&P 500 Index also rose 1% at one point, marking the largest intraday gain in a week since October 16th. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 small-cap stocks led the major indices, rising more than 1%.

At midday, US stocks approached erasing all gains, but then rebounded and closed higher collectively. The Dow Jones ended a four-day losing streak, while the S&P 500 ended a five-day losing streak, both moving away from their lowest levels since May 31st. The Nasdaq rose for the second consecutive day from its four-and-a-half-month low, approaching a recovery of last Thursday's decline. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks also ended a four-day losing streak and moved away from a one-year low:

The S&P 500 Index closed up 30.64 points, or 0.73%, at 4,247.68. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 204.97 points, or 0.62%, at 33,141.38. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 121.55 points, or 0.93%, at 13,339.88. The Nasdaq 100 rose by about 1%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose 0.8%. The "fear index" VIX fell 7% and fell below 19.

Dow Jones ends four-day losing streak, S&P ends five-day losing streak, Nasdaq rises nearly 1% According to FactSet's statistics, the third-quarter earnings season for US stocks has started off well. Among the S&P 500 companies that have reported their earnings, 77% have exceeded expectations. Bank of America reported that its clients have been increasing their investments in US stocks for 12 consecutive weeks, but the majority of the investments are in ETFs, while individual stock investments have experienced the largest outflow of funds since August.

Tech stocks are generally rising, with Meta, the "metaverse" company, initially rising 1.4% before falling 0.5%. Apple initially dropped nearly 1% before slightly rebounding and moving away from its monthly low. Amazon rose 1.6%, Netflix rose 1.7% to a six-week high, and Tesla rose 4.7% before closing up 2%, still not far from its four-and-a-half-month low. Prior to the earnings reports, Microsoft rose 0.4% and Google Class A shares rose 1.7%. Microsoft's third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, rising nearly 5% after hours, while Google Cloud's revenue fell short of expectations, causing a drop of about 6% after hours.

Chip stocks saw an expansion in gains in the final trading session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.4%, returning to 3300 points and moving away from its lowest level in nearly five months. Intel rose over 2%, AMD rebounded 1.7% to move away from its four-week low, and Nvidia also rose 1.6% to a one-week high. However, ARM rose over 4% to a two-week high, and Qualcomm rose 0.7%, reaching a high of 1.5% during trading hours.

AI concept stocks continue to rebound. C3.ai rose nearly 8%, Palantir Technologies rose nearly 3%, both rising for two consecutive days from their two-week lows. SoundHound.ai's gains were halved after rising over 8%, and BigBear.ai rose 4.5% before rising 0.8%, both moving away from their lows in the past four weeks.

In terms of news, Apple will hold a product launch event called "Scary Fast" on October 30th. Meta was sued by attorneys general from 42 states in the United States before its earnings report this week, accusing the company of harmful addictive features targeting children and teenagers. ARM and Nvidia are jointly developing PC chips for Windows systems, and Lenovo and Nvidia are expanding their cooperation in the field of hybrid AI solutions. Prior to the earnings report, Morgan Stanley included Amazon in its preferred list, optimistic about the increase in pre-tax profits, stable growth of AWS, and attractive valuation. Qualcomm stated that the performance of the Snapdragon X PC chip can surpass similar chips from Intel and Apple.

Chinese concept stocks have outperformed the broader US market for two consecutive days. The ETF KWEB rose over 4%, CQQQ rose 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) also rose by about 4%, approaching 6400 points and recovering most of the decline since last Tuesday, moving away from its four-and-a-half-month low.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com rose 1.8%, Baidu rose 3.8%, and Pinduoduo rose about 4%. In other individual stocks, Alibaba rose nearly 3%, Tencent ADR rose 2%, Bilibili rose over 7%, NIO rose 6.6%, XPeng rose over 10%, and Li Auto rose over 7%. Huya rose 12.6%, and GDS Holdings rose nearly 13%. Xiaopeng Motors unveiled a series of new products at the Technology Day, including the announcement of research on the next generation of integrated die-casting technology, the first launch of the bipedal robot PX5, the first MPV "Xiaopeng X9", and the upcoming production of a flying car.

Bank stocks have fallen for five consecutive days, reaching their lowest level in nearly five months. After rising 1%, the industry benchmark KBW Bank Index (BKX) slightly declined, reaching its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th. After falling nearly 2%, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) halved its decline, reaching its lowest level since November 2020 on May 11th. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 1.9% and closed down 0.6% after reaching its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Bitcoin rose above $35,000 for the first time in a year and a half, driving up the stocks of blockchain concept companies. Among the large "mining stocks," Marathon Digital rose more than 22% at its highest point, and Riot Platforms briefly rose more than 17%. "The first stock of a US digital currency exchange," Coinbase, rose nearly 16% at its highest point. Microstrategy also briefly rose more than 16%, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust rose more than 9% at its highest point.

This led to the flagship ETF ARKK of "Queen of the Bull Market" Cathie Wood, which rose 5% at the beginning of trading, achieving its best performance since the end of August and ultimately closing up nearly 3%, further distancing itself from its lowest level in five and a half months. All the stocks held by this ETF rose before noon.

Among the stocks that announced their earnings reports, Coca-Cola's third-quarter profits and revenues exceeded expectations, and despite price increases, sales continued to grow, leading to an upward revision of its full-year guidance. The stock price rose 3% to a three-week high. Industrial giant 3M rose more than 5% as its third-quarter report exceeded expectations and raised its full-year profit outlook, thanks to successful restructuring and expense control. General Electric rose more than 6% to a one-month high as its third-quarter report exceeded expectations and raised its full-year guidance, benefiting from increased demand in the aerospace industry. Aerospace and defense stock RTX rose more than 7%, and telecommunications giant Verizon rose more than 9% to its best level in fifteen years.

Swedish music streaming giant Spotify rose more than 10% to a three-month high, as price increases and cost reductions unexpectedly led to its first profit in a year and a half, and it is optimistic about expanding into the podcast and audiobook fields.

General Motors fell more than 4% before briefly rising nearly 2%, ultimately closing down 2.3% to a three-year low since September 2020. Its third-quarter profits and revenues exceeded expectations, but the uncertainty and cost increases caused by the strike led to the withdrawal of its 2023 performance guidance. The strike, which began on September 15th, has resulted in a pre-tax income loss of approximately $800 million due to a weekly loss of $200 million in automobile production.

After the positive release of its third-quarter earnings report, the United Auto Workers union (UAW) announced that 5,000 workers at General Motors' largest and most profitable SUV assembly plant in Arlington, Texas, have joined the strike, bringing the total number of strikes against the three major US automakers to over 45,000. According to media estimates, the car workers' strike has been going on for 5 weeks, causing the US economy to lose over 9 billion dollars.

European stocks rebounded during the session. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.44%, ending a five-day losing streak and moving away from a nine-and-a-half-month low. Mining stocks led the gains, rising 2.6%, while automotive stocks fell nearly 1% and banking stocks also fell 1%, dragged down by Barclays, whose trading department's performance fell short of expectations, causing a 7% decline.

Luxury goods stocks in Europe rose across the board. Kering Group rose 1% despite slightly lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue and a 9% decline in comparable income, exceeding expectations. Hermès rose nearly 3% as third-quarter sales increased by 16%, surpassing expectations and moving away from a seven-month low. LVMH rose nearly 2%, moving away from its low for the year.

US long-term bond yields fall during the session, moving away from a 16-year high, short-term bond yields rise, moving away from a one-week low

The long-term bond yields that recently caused panic in the US stock market fell during the session, moving away from the 16-year high set yesterday, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets such as the stock market.

The two-year US Treasury bond yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, rose the most, up 7 basis points and back above 5.10%, moving away from a one-week low. The 10-year benchmark bond yields rose more than 5 basis points to 4.89% before falling, erasing all gains since last Wednesday. Yesterday, it rose above 5% to reach the highest level since July 2007. The 30-year long-term bond yields rose 4 basis points before falling 5 basis points, falling below 5% again.

US long-term bond yields fall during the session, short-term bond yields rise, moving away from a one-week low

Eurozone bond yields fell after disappointing PMI data. Previously, analysts said that European and American bonds were being sold off, mainly due to the elimination of economic recession risks and the long-term increase in US interest rate expectations. However, the latest PMI data has reignited concerns about a recession in Europe.

The yield on 10-year German bonds, the benchmark for the eurozone, fell 9 basis points to 2.79% at one point, hitting a one-week low since October 16. It had reached 3.024% at the beginning of the month, the highest level since July 2011. The yield on two-year German bonds fell nearly 4 basis points, and the yield on 10-year Italian bonds fell 7 basis points at one point, with the yield on two-year Italian bonds falling 5 basis points. At the same time, the yield on 10-year UK bonds fell 6 basis points at the end of the day, and the yield on two-year bonds fell 4 basis points for the fourth consecutive day.

Weak European data highlights pessimistic demand outlook, oil prices fall for three consecutive days to a new low in over a week, European natural gas falls more than 5% during the session

Weak European data highlights a pessimistic demand outlook, and oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, with a 2% decline for two consecutive days. WTI December futures fell $1.75, or 2.05%, to $83.74 per barrel. Brent crude futures fell $1.76, or 1.96%, to $88.07 per barrel in December.

WTI crude oil experienced the deepest drop, falling $2.52 or 2.9%, with a daily low of $83, essentially erasing the gains since October 13. Brent crude also experienced a significant drop of $2.47 or 2.7%, with a daily low of $87, wiping out nearly half of the gains since October 13.

Nomura Securities believes that concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, and that US oil will fluctuate in the range of $80 to $90 for a period of time. The market is also paying attention to OPEC production, US inventories, and the recovery of Chinese demand. Pierre Andurand, a well-known oil trader, believes that Saudi Arabia will not relax production cuts until oil prices reach $110.

TTF Dutch natural gas futures, the European benchmark, fell the most by 5.6%, falling below the 50 euro/megawatt-hour mark. ICE UK natural gas also fell more than 5%, both falling from the one-week high. Yesterday, it was reported that the EU is considering extending the cap on natural gas prices due to concerns about winter supply.

The US dollar rises above 106, leaving a one-month low, while the yen approaches 150, and Bitcoin rises by 10% to surpass $35,000

The US dollar index, which measures against six major currencies, rose by 0.7% and surpassed the 106 mark, leaving behind the one-month low of 105.35 set yesterday. In early October, it reached a 11-month high of 107.34. Some analysts believe that PMI data shows an increase in business activity in the US in October, highlighting the relative economic resilience compared to the UK and the EU.

The euro fell by 0.7% against the US dollar and fell below the 1.06 mark, temporarily moving away from the one-month high. The pound also fell by 0.7% and fell below the 1.22 mark, moving away from the one-week high. The yen against the US dollar approached the 150 mark, hovering at a three-week low. Offshore renminbi rose to 7.30 yuan in the Asia-Pacific session, fell below 7.32 yuan in pre-market trading in the US, down 146 points from the previous day's close, and remained below 7.31 yuan during US trading, still close to a one-week high.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies have risen for two consecutive days. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 10% overnight, marking the largest increase in a year. It surpassed $35,000 for the first time since early May last year. On Tuesday, it traded at $34,000 with a narrowed increase of 3%. Some analysts believe that this is mainly due to the increased hope of the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, which prompted short sellers in the cryptocurrency market to cover their positions, leading to a price increase. Bitcoin has doubled in value this year. Bitcoin rose 10% and broke through $35,000, marking its largest increase in a year.

Gold continues to fall from its five-month high, and demand from China is expected to boost London metals, with copper breaking away from its 11-month low.

The rise in the US dollar and US bond yields has put pressure on precious metals. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.09% to $1,986.10 per ounce. Silver futures fell 0.4%.

Spot gold fell by $19 or 1% before the US stock market opened, approaching the $1,950 mark, but it rebounded and rose above $1,970 in the afternoon session. Last Friday, it attempted to break through the $2,000 mark and reached a five-month high.

Some analysts believe that geopolitical risks continue to support gold prices, and if the Middle East crisis escalates, gold may still reach $2,000 in the short term, or even hit a new all-time high. Gold prices have risen by about 9% in the past two weeks. However, if the US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation data this week are better than expected, and the situation in the Middle East does not escalate, it will be negative for gold, as these factors will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Gold continues to fall from its five-month high, but some analysts believe that it will rise to $2,000 in the near future.

Demand from China hopes to dispel uncertainties in other regions, and London industrial metals are rising together:

The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" rose 1% and returned to $8,000. It hit a 11-month low of $7,856 in yesterday's session, but some analysts are bearish on the copper price in the next 6 to 12 months, predicting that the price will fall to $7,000 per ton.

Aluminum rose 0.7%, breaking away from its lowest level in nearly two months. Zinc rose 0.9%, lead rose slightly again, and tin rose 0.8% and broke through $25,000. All of them rebounded from their lows of the week. Nickel, which fell more than 2% yesterday, rose 0.5%, breaking away from its two-year low since September 2021.

In addition, most of the night trading in domestic futures closed higher, with coking coal and coke rising by more than 4%, iron ore rising by more than 3%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil rising by nearly 2%. However, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell by nearly 2%.