Fed-related news tracking
2026
Jan09
The likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the January 28 FOMC meeting has decreased, with traders now estimating a 5% chance, down from 11.1%. The December unemployment rate was 4.4%, better than expected, while wage growth rose by 3.8%. Despite a weaker nonfarm payroll increase of 50,000 jobs in December, the overall labor market strength is leading to reduced expectations for rate cuts, as higher wages may keep inflation elevated.
The U.S. unemployment rate has decreased, leading traders to bet more heavily on the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts. According to the latest employment data, traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points this year. Polymarket data shows a 96% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January, with only a 5% chance of a rate cut.
Following the release of non-farm payroll data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has increased to 97.2%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 2.8%.
Ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 11.6%, with an 88.4% chance of no change. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 35.8%, with a 60.6% chance of no change, and a 3.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
Jan08
The Federal Reserve's discount window loan balance fell to $7.23 billion for the week ending January 7, down from $9.66 billion the previous week.
The Federal Reserve has provided detailed information on its balance sheet, which includes significant liabilities such as loans through the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and assets like U.S. Treasury securities.
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates slightly this year to mitigate risks to the labor market. Short-term borrowing costs are expected to decrease to 3.4% by Q4 2023 and remain stable until 2028. The CBO also predicts U.S. unemployment will end 2023 at 4.6%, dropping to 4.4% by 2028, while inflation is expected to ease to 2.7% this year and further to 2.1% by 2028.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage fell to $3.083 billion, down from $4.582 billion the previous trading day, involving seven counterparties.
Jan07
The Federal Reserve is set to propose new regulations to review bank regulatory thresholds, focusing on 'unsafe and unsound' practices.
Jan06
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 81.7%, with an 18.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.
The Federal Reserve accepted $25.82 billion from 10 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repo operation.
Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, advocates for significant interest rate cuts this year to stimulate the U.S. economy. He believes the current policy is restrictive and suggests that over 100 basis points of cuts are justified. Miran's term ends on January 31.
Jan05
According to BlockBeats, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 17.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate stands at 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut increases to 43.6%, with a 49.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 6.9%.
On January 5, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) reached $6.485 billion, up from $5.667 billion the previous trading day.
Jan04
According to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, there is an 83.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, with a 16.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
Jan02
The Federal Reserve's discount window loans for the week ending December 31 were $9.66 billion, down from $9.87 billion the previous week.
The Federal Reserve has released detailed information about its balance sheet, which includes assets like U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and liabilities such as currency in circulation and bank reserves.
On January 2, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage dropped to $5.667 billion from $105.993 billion the previous trading day, involving 7 counterparties.
Jan01
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.1%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 51.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 42.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.9%.
On the last trading day of 2025, the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) provided $74.6 billion in loans to financial institutions, far exceeding the previous high of $50.35 billion. This is largely attributed to banks managing year-end balance sheets and regulatory settlements.
