Prediction Platform Kalshi Sees Increased Probability of Trump Refunding Tariffs

Summary

According to the prediction platform Kalshi, the market-implied probability of a court ordering a refund of Trump-era tariffs before July 2026 has surged to 66%, a substantial increase from a previous estimate of around 30%.USHK News This follows earlier reports from this week where prediction markets indicated the probability of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs had dropped to as low as 25%.

Impact Analysis

So the prediction markets are basically calling it: they see a Trump-era tariff refund as a likely event now. The probability on Kalshi just jumped from 30% to 66%, which is a massive shift in conviction.USHK News This isn’t happening in a vacuum; just a few days ago, other reports showed the odds of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs had cratered to 25%.

The bottom line is this signals a potential multi-billion dollar cash windfall for companies that paid those Section 301 tariffs—think major importers, retailers, and auto companies. This is a non-operational cash event that the broader equity market is likely underpricing. For some of these companies, the refund could be a meaningful percentage of their market cap. We should be screening for the most exposed names and building a long basket. This is a clear, event-driven catalyst that’s now being quantified by a real-money market.