3nm mass production, planning to enter the 2nm market (TSMC 3Q23 conference call)

TSMC released its third-quarter earnings report for 2023 (ending in September) before the US stock market opened on October 19, 2023. Here are the key points:

Quarterly Core Data vs. Market Expectations Overview:

Revenue: TSMC achieved $17.3 billion in revenue for the quarter, a MoM increase of 10.2%, close to the upper end of the guidance range ($16.7-17.5 billion).

Gross Margin: The quarterly gross margin reached 54.3%, a MoM increase of 0.2 percentage points, exceeding the guidance range (51.5-53.5%).

Business Situation: Mass production of 3nm has begun, and nodes below 7nm account for 59% of the total.

Guidance for the Next Quarter: TSMC expects revenue of $18.8-19.6 billion for the fourth quarter of 2023 (higher than the market expectation of $18.3 billion) and a gross margin of 51.5-53.5% (in line with the market expectation of 52.4%).

For detailed financial information, please refer to Dolphin Research's analysis report~

1. Taiwan Semiconductor.US Conference Call Highlights:

1) Reason for Decline in Gross Margin for the Next Quarter: The midpoint of the gross margin for the fourth quarter is expected to decrease by 1.8 percentage points to 52.5%. This is mainly due to the rapid growth of 3nm technology, which leads to a continuous dilution of profit margin.

2) Decrease in the Proportion of 7nm: This is a temporary situation, and there will be new applications to fill the gap, similar to what happened with 28nm in the past.

3) Rebound in Revenue from 5nm: This is mainly driven by high-performance computing and smartphones, as well as seasonal improvements.

2. Taiwan Semiconductor.US Conference Call Transcript:

2.1 Management Overview:

Total operating expenses accounted for 12.6% of net revenue, compared to 12.1% in the second quarter. This is mainly due to the increased R&D expenses to support the development of 3nm and 2nm technologies. The operating profit margin was 41.7%, a decrease of three percentage points from the previous quarter.Overall, our earnings per share for the third quarter was 8.14 New Taiwan dollars, with a net asset ratio of 25.8%. Now let's take a look at the revenue breakdown by technology. The 3-nanometer process contributed 6% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while the 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer processes accounted for 37% and 16% respectively. Advanced technologies defined as 7-nanometer and below accounted for 59% of wafer revenue. It appears that HPC (high-performance computing) revenue grew by 6% compared to the previous quarter, now accounting for 42% of total revenue. Smartphone revenue increased by 33%, now accounting for 39% of total revenue. IoT revenue grew by 24%, now accounting for 9% of total revenue. Automotive revenue decreased by 24%, now accounting for 5% of total revenue. DCE (data center equipment) revenue decreased by 1%.

Based on our current business outlook, we expect revenue for the fourth quarter to be between $18.8 billion and $19.6 billion, representing a seasonal growth of 11.1%. Assuming an exchange rate of 1 USD to 32 TWD, we expect gross margin to be between 51.5% and 53.5%, and operating margin to be between 39.5% and 41.5%. That concludes my financial statement. Now let me talk about our key highlights. I will first comment on our profitability for the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Compared to the second quarter, our gross margin for the third quarter increased by 20 basis points to 54.3%, primarily due to higher capacity utilization and favorable exchange rates, partially offset by profit dilution from the initial growth in the third quarter.

Compared to our guidance for the third quarter, our actual gross margin exceeded the upper end of the range provided three months ago by 80 basis points, mainly due to favorable exchange rates. We just guided the midpoint of gross margin for the fourth quarter to decrease by 1.8 percentage points to 52.5%, primarily due to continued margin dilution from the rapid growth of our 3-nanometer technology.

Just a reminder, there are six factors that determine TSMC's profitability. Leadership, technology development and pricing improvement, cost reduction, capacity utilization, technology mix, and exchange rates will manage our profitability in the coming years. We will strive to improve internal costs while strategically monetizing our value and mitigating the impact of exchange rates that we cannot control. We continue to forecast that our long-term gross margin can reach 53% or higher.

Next, let me talk about our capital expenditure and depreciation for 2023. Our annual capital expenditure is used to forecast future growth. Given the recent uncertainties, we continue to prudently manage our business and tighten capital expenditure for the year. We now expect capital expenditure for 2023 to be approximately $32 billion. Of the approximately $32 billion capital expenditure in 2023, around 70% of the capital budget will be allocated to advanced process technologies, around 20% will be allocated to specialty process technologies, and around 10% will be allocated to advanced packaging, testing, and interconnect. Compared to our forecast of approximately 30% year-on-year growth in January, we currently expect depreciation expenses for 2023 to increase by around 20% year-on-year.Despite the recent impact of the inventory cycle, our commitment to supporting customer growth remains unchanged. Our strict capital expenditure and capacity planning are still based on the long-term structural market demand. We will continue to work closely with our customers to plan our long-term capacity and invest in leading-edge packaging technologies to support their growth while delivering profit growth for our shareholders.

Our revenue for the third quarter was $17.3 billion, in line with our guidance. Our business in the third quarter was driven by strong growth in the industry-leading 3-nanometer technology and support for higher demand for 5-nanometer technology, partially offset by ongoing inventory adjustments by customers (entering the fourth quarter of 2023). The demand remains strong, but it is not enough to offset the overall cyclicality of our business. We expect our business in the fourth quarter to be supported by continued strong growth in 3-nanometer technology, partially offset by ongoing inventory adjustments by customers. As for inventory, we expect semiconductor inventory to continue to decrease in the third quarter. However, due to the overall weak macroeconomic conditions in China and slow demand recovery, customers remain cautious about inventory control. Therefore, we expect inventory digestion to continue in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, we have observed some early signs of stable demand in the personal computer and smartphone markets. With such inventory control levels, we expect semiconductor inventory to further decrease and reach a healthier level in the fourth quarter of 2023.

After extensive due diligence, we announced plans to establish a professional technology atmosphere in Dresden, Germany, with a focus on automotive and industrial applications. Our JV partners, the European Commission government, and the German federal, state, and municipal governments are all firmly committed to supporting this project. The factory will utilize 22-nanometer, 28-nanometer, 12-nanometer, and 16-nanometer technologies for semiconductor wafer manufacturing. The factory construction is planned to start in the second half of 2024, and production is scheduled to begin in 2027. In Arizona, we have received strong support from the City of Phoenix and the U.S. federal government and continue to develop positive relationships and close cooperation with local union partners. We have made good progress on infrastructure utilities and equipment installation, and the situation is improving. We have also made early preparations for the operation of the Arizona Expo and have hired nearly 1,100 local TSMC employees. Many of them have been brought to Taiwan and have gained valuable experience, allowing them to further enhance their technical skills while immersing themselves in the TSMC operating environment and culture. Our goal remains to achieve volume production of information processing technology in the first half of 2025, and we believe that once we start operations, we will be able to provide manufacturing quality and reliability in Arizona at the same level as Taiwan. In Japan, we have developed a professional technology and adopted 12-nanometer, 16-nanometer, 22-nanometer, and 28-nanometer process technologies. So far, we have more local TSMC employees, most of whom have similar experiences brought to Taiwan, and mass production is expected to be achieved by the end of 2024. In China, we recently received an extension from the U.S. Department of Commerce to continue our operations in Nanjing.We are currently applying for validated end-user authorization and expect to obtain permanent authorization in the near future. From a strategic perspective, the initial cost of overseas factories is higher than that of TSMC's factories in Taiwan, resulting in higher costs throughout the supply chain. In addition, compared to the mature ecosystem in Taiwan, the overseas semiconductor ecosystem is still in its early stages. TSMC has a responsibility to manage and minimize costs in order to maximize shareholder returns. Our pricing will also remain strategic to reflect our value, including the value of geographical flexibility, and we will continue to work closely with governments to gain their support.

Now let's talk about N3 and N3E, which are the most advanced semiconductor technologies in terms of PPA and transistor technology. N3 has already entered mass production with good yields. We will see volume ramp-up in the second half of the year, driven by high-performance computing and smartphones. We reiterate that the 3nm process will account for a mid-single-digit percentage of total revenue in 2023, and we expect a higher percentage in 2024. N3E will serve as the foundation for the expansion of the future 3nm family. N3E has shown promising performance and will begin mass production in the fourth quarter of this year.

We continue to enhance our strategic 3nm process technology by further strengthening technologies including N3P and N3X, and we expect strong customer demand for years to come.

As for the 2nm process technology, mass production is expected to begin in 2025, and we have also developed backside power for high-performance computing.

2.2 Q&A Analyst Questions and Answers

Q: This question is about our technological leadership. Given that we have heard a lot of competitive information from US IDM competitors about cutting customers in the past few months, Intel seems to believe that they will achieve a technological or process technology leadership position in 2025. I just wanted to hear TSMC's view on Intel's claim. When considering customer engagement, do you think you will lose some market share to Intel in N2 or the first generation of nanosheet transistors? Or do you think your high market share in N3 will continue into N2?

A: In fact, we do not underestimate any of our competitors. Our internal assessments show that our N3P and N3P technologies demonstrate PPA equivalent to the competitors' 18A. However, in the market, we are earlier, with better technology, more mature, and better cost. In fact, I will say it again, our backside power-free 2nm technology is more advanced than N4P and 18A. N2 is one of the most advanced technologies in the semiconductor industry and will be launched in 2025.

Q: Can we talk about the demand related to artificial intelligence? We have seen strong demand in the data center sector, and you mentioned that AI accounts for about 6% of this year's revenue, mainly in the data center sector. According to TSMC's expectations, are we starting to see more participation in AI demand for edge devices? Will this become a major driving factor for TSMC's leadership in AI devices in the next one or two years?A: The answer is quite simple. Yes, we have indeed seen some activities from customers adding artificial intelligence capabilities to their end devices, such as smartphones and PCs. We certainly hope that this new engine can help TSMC become even stronger in the field of artificial intelligence.

Q: My question is, assuming stable demand and inventory returning to a healthy level. It is hard to believe that with a leading advantage, the capacity utilization rate would only be maintained at 70%-80%. So, the first question is, when do you expect the capacity utilization rate to increase?

A: As I mentioned, we have indeed observed some early signs of stability in the demand for personal computers, smartphones, and the two largest parts of TSMC's business. We expect 2024 to be a very healthy process. But for now, we see that the bottom is very close. Even though the major environment in the United States is still uncertain, we will still assess the inventory control situation of our customers in the first half of 2024. That being said, we have already stated that we have a strong technological leadership position among a wide range of customers. And these two are unique and specific to TSMC, enabling our customers to win business in the end market and continue to achieve healthy growth, which is why we can do better than the entire industry.

Q: In the past three months, have you seen any revisions to the forecasts for GPUs or chips? I know this is a recent development, just two days ago, additional export controls were imposed on artificial intelligence being shipped to China. How do you think this will impact your short-term or long-term assumptions for revenue growth in artificial intelligence?

A: The demand for artificial intelligence continues to grow. Therefore, from TSMC's perspective, we now have the ability to limit and support their demand. We are working hard to increase capacity to meet their needs. That's one aspect.

Now, the US government has introduced new regulations that prohibit the shipment of certain products to mainland China. However, this was just a few days ago, and we are still evaluating it. But so far, we can tell you that the short-term impact on TSMC is limited and manageable, and the long-term impact will be evaluated later.

Q: Asking about the outlook for the next two years.

A: From 2021 to 2026, revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15-20%. We still expect the overall growth rate of the smartphone market to be on par or slightly lower than the company's average growth rate, but the smartphone business will experience a significant decline in 2023. We still believe that HPC will be the most powerful and will be the main contributor to our growth in the coming years. That answers your first question about the growth of the backend business. We still expect the overall growth rate of the backend packaging business to be faster than the company's average growth rate over the next five years.

Q: The next question is about the technology roadmap. I mean, in terms of TSMC's ultimate revenue contribution. We saw that the revenue contribution of 5nm started in the third quarter of 2020. And 3nm is expected to start contributing revenue in the third quarter of 2023, indicating a longer gap for 3nm. What is the future technology roadmap like? Can we expect revenue contribution from 2nm within the next two years?A: Our primary task is to develop technology to meet customer needs, and different customers may have different product plans to consider. As time goes on, technology actually becomes more and more complex, and our customers design their products in response to market conditions. So let me answer this question in a very simple way, TSMC's technology pace remains unchanged and supports customer growth. But when we can achieve the same amount or percentage of revenue, it depends on the customer's product plan. If customers indeed do not need fast advanced technology as before, perhaps we can slow down a bit, which will yield better returns.

Q: My question is also related to capacity expansion plans, as we now see healthier inventory levels, and the most advanced processors will depend on customer demand. So I just want to understand your overall view on the prospects for capital expenditure or capacity in the next two years. Considering the strong demand for N2 entering the market, what are the capital plans for the next two years? Because you will see that the price of N2 may be more than twice that of N3. So my question is only about future expansion plans.

A: As mentioned earlier, our capacity plans actually depend on customer product plans. As for capital expenditure now, what we can see is that we have made a lot of investments in the past few years, and we expect the growth of capital expenditure to stabilize in the coming years. This does not mean that the dollar amount will decrease as the capital intensity decreases, and the capital intensity will decrease in the next few years.

Q: I just want to know, if we migrate to something like back-end power, what is the most challenging part, and since transistor density will also be completely different. So I just want to know if customers will migrate or plan to adopt the most advanced nodes in the next 2-3 years?

A: Our other technologies are entering more and more advanced nodes, and challenges always exist. The complexity of technology has increased dramatically, but we can do it, and we still maintain the industry's technological leadership. If you ask me what the biggest challenge is, I would say it is cost. I mean, now inflation, everything is becoming more and more expensive, even though we can meet customer requirements. In fact, the challenge we are facing now is, I think cost is the first priority. I want to reduce costs and make it more affordable for more customers. Even so, in fact, we have many customers interested in TSMC.

Q: US hyperscale companies are hiring a lot of people to develop custom AI chips and working directly with TSMC. So my question is, does TSMC support this trend, and how do we view this type of customer?

A: I don't comment on specific customers or everything we know, or our basic rule is when customers develop CPUs, TPUs, AI accelerators, or ethical standards for their own applications or to support the field of artificial intelligence. Due to our technological leadership and good manufacturing capabilities, we are able to address and occupy a large part of the market, so when you ask if we support it, we support every customer around the world.Q: I would like to inquire about the performance of the 7nm process in this quarter, which is lower than expected. I believe this is a significant decline compared to the same period last year, and there has been a continuous decline in the automotive field as well. Can you help us understand how you are building backup for the 7nm process, what has caused the weakening, and what is happening in the automotive field, as well as how you evaluate the future prospects of the automotive industry in the next 6-9 months?

A: In fact, the automotive demand has been very strong in the past three years. We have been providing whatever they need. Today, I believe that automotive demand has entered the second inventory adjustment mode starting from the second half of 2023. However, we still expect a significant growth in automotive demand in 2024 as more and more electric vehicles and features are added to cars, which is what we are seeing.

Now, regarding N7, the reason for the low utilization or declining revenue of the 7nm technology is beyond our initial plan. We expected N7 to be fully utilized even now, but that is not the case. It is because we suddenly found that the demand for smartphones has sharply decreased from about 1.4 billion units in the past 10 years to about 1.1 billion units now. Therefore, it is during this time frame that the utilization of 7nm has been affected, and subsequently, a major customer delayed the product launch. That is why our utilization is low, but we are confident that we can backfill our 6/7nm capacity through other applications such as consumer electronics, RF, connectors, and maintain a healthy utilization level in the coming years. This is very similar to the situation we had with 28nm, where it was not fully utilized initially in 2018 and 2019, and then we worked with customers to develop some specialty technologies, and now we have expanded it by 20.

Q: Regarding AI terminal devices, edge AI, and CPO. So, besides having interesting interactions with customers, how does this affect the company's wafer consumption? And considering the computing power and energy consumption aspects of AI terminal devices in additional features, should we expect it to accelerate the migration of terminal device nodes? That is my first question.

A: Edge devices are starting to incorporate AI capabilities, including smartphones and PCs, as we have observed an increasing number of neural engines being added. So, even though the unit count is not increasing dramatically, the chip size is increasing. But the chip size increase is in the mid-teens - or, I mean, so far, it's in the mid-teens in terms of chip size increase. I expect this trend to continue.

Therefore, in terms of artificial intelligence, more and more applications are being integrated into these edge devices. And this requires very power-efficient chips to be put into edge devices, especially when it comes to mobile devices. So, I do hope - from my perspective, I do hope that my customers can move to the leading-edge nodes faster and faster to compete in the market.Q: So the second question is about CPO. Basically, we understand that TSMC has done well in CPO or the so-called silicon photonics, and has been in a leading position in the industry, providing a technical platform for customers. So, we understand the opportunities and impact of new technologies on the industry and our company. And in the long run, should we expect this platform to provide TSMC with additional competitive advantages?

A: Alright. Let me answer this question. Silicon photonics is becoming increasingly important as more data needs to be collected and processed and transmitted in an energy-efficient manner. Silicon photonics often fits this role the best. TSMC has been committed to silicon photonics for many years, and most importantly, we are collaborating with multiple leading customers and supporting their innovations in this field.

Developing technology and building capabilities takes a significant amount of time. As we ramp up production, we believe TSMC's silicon photonics will be the best technology and when customers roll out all their innovations. But as I mentioned, their activities are gradually increasing and the demand is also gradually increasing from today.

Q: My first question is about advanced packaging. Gradually, we are hearing more customers expressing interest in adopting advanced packaging to achieve better heterogeneous integration. But do you want to understand more about how customers rely on packaging to improve system performance and the potential impact of price migration considering cost considerations? At the same time, SOIC has been launched for a while, and customer adoption seems to be limited at this point. So when should we expect a more meaningful SOIC rebound? What are the main catalysts?

A: It's not because the cost increases for more advanced nodes. In fact, they are trying -- our customers are trying to maximize system performance. That's the main part. Including speed improvement or power reduction, all these things, put together, maybe cost is also part of the consideration that we notice.

So, more and more customers are entering very advanced technology nodes, and they are starting to adopt a chip-based approach. So, in any case, TSMC provides industry-leading solution technologies in leading technology and advanced packaging and works with customers to have the best system performance for their products.

You asked about SOIC, actually, customers are ready to announce their new products that are widely adopted, and I expect that starting from now and next year, SOIC will generate revenue and become one of the fastest-growing advanced packaging solutions in the coming years.

Q: Three months ago, we said that we would double our capacity. Can we provide the latest situation of overall CoWoS capacity? I think capital expenditure and capacity go hand in hand. What are our plans?

A: Last time we said we would double the CoWoS capacity. We are working hard to increase the capacity by more than double, but today we are still limited by supplier capabilities or capacity. Therefore, we still maintain the belief that by the end of 2024, our CoWoS capacity will double. But from 2023 to 2024, the total output actually increases by more than double because the demand from our customers is very high.Therefore, in fact, this trend will continue to enhance our CoWoS capabilities to support our customers, even until 2025.

Q: As we enter the end of this year and the first half of 2024, targeting various end markets. I would like to understand how the ramp of these new products will impact seasonality, and whether we can expect the ramp of these new products, especially at the cutting edge, to somewhat offset the seasonal factors in the first half of the year? Any thoughts there that I can take action on?

A: I don't think we can comment on specific customer products, but I can tell you that we haven't seen any significant changes in seasonality.

Q: Because I'm looking at your 2023 calendar year and considering your Q4 guidance, you actually did better than three months ago when you said revenue could decline by 10% dollars, now it could actually decline by high single digits. Is this a combination of stronger new product growth and better pricing? Is this a fair assessment?

A: Let me give you a simple reason, because of the ramp of our N3, because the demand for N3 is strong. So, we quickly ramped up to meet customer demand. Therefore, the end result is better than our expectations three months ago.

Q: Then, perhaps, if I may ask a second question, I just want to better understand your view on customer inventory correction. We're reaching the bottom and we can't understand how quickly they will refresh their inventory. The slope of the recovery is still unclear. Am I understanding correctly?

A: Actually, in these past few months, we have started to see demand in the PC and smartphone end markets stabilize. In fact, we see some urgent PO requests to ship more devices to their locations to meet demand. This gives us an indication of inventory - it has become healthier than we imagined.

So, in terms of the uncertain macro, it may continue, but our expectation is very close to a healthy state. That's why we say we can expect 2024 to be a year of healthy growth for TSMC.

Q: The first one is gross margin. Where do you expect N3 to reach the corporate average gross margin? Looking ahead to next year, how do you think about the mature node gross margin as the whole industry ramps up mature node capacity?

A: Yes. Krish, in the past, our leading nodes typically reached the corporate gross margin in about eight quarters. But as we advance more and more leading nodes, it will become increasingly challenging for several reasons.

Well, first, our corporate margin is higher than before. Second, as I just mentioned, leading nodes are becoming more and more complex. And unexpected inflationary pressures in the past few years have also led to cost increases for N3. So, for future leading nodes, reaching the corporate margin as before will be very challenging - just like before within the same time frame.

As for mature nodes, I can tell you that our mature nodes - the gross margin actually converges around the corporate average level -Very close range, because we focus on professional technology.

Q: I would like to understand the rebound of the 5nm business in the third quarter. Will this situation continue in the coming quarters? What is behind this? In relative terms, for example, when you lowered the 23-year outlook three to six months ago, has the performance of the 5nm exceeded expectations? And how has the demand trend for 5nm been in the past two to three months?

A: I can share with you the growth in revenue in the third quarter, which mainly came from the HPC and smartphone platforms. HPC also includes AI-related demand, while smartphones are essentially seasonal products for some of our customers. Now, for prudence, I will not share with you, but we will inform you in January about the actual revenue for the next quarter for M5.

Overall revenue, we do not provide revenue by process node.

Q: Another question is about capital expenditure. It sounds like you expect absolute dollar capital expenditure to continue to grow. Looking ahead, I know this is a long-term comment. But in the short term, TSMC's capital expenditure in the second half of 23 seems to be around $7 billion per quarter, with an annualized rate of about $28 billion. However, if we expect total capital expenditure for 24 to increase in dollar terms from 23, then it seems that you expect capital expenditure in 2024 to increase.

Perhaps this is your plan for capital expenditure growth in 24. Is this the right way to think about it, like capital expenditure? Is $7 billion really the lowest run rate for TSMC's capital expenditure currently?

A: Capital expenditure is invested based on future growth opportunities every year. We invest to seize these future opportunities. It is really too early to talk about 2024 now, and we will share guidance with you in the January quarter release.

Dolphin Research on TSMC and the semiconductor manufacturing industry

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